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Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and predictions

The Dallas Mavericks (39-25) host the Utah Jazz (40-23) Monday at American Airlines Center for an 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Jazz vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

This is Utah’s final of a five-game road swing. The Jazz are 3-1 straight up (SU) and 1-3 against the spread (ATS) through the first four outings with the latest being a 116-103 beatdown of the Thunder Sunday in Oklahoma City.

Dallas enters on a four-game win streak (2-1-1 ATS), which includes two victories over the Golden State Warriors and a 114-113 victory over the Sacramento Kings Saturday without All-Star G Luka Doncic.

The Jazz are 2-0 SU versus the Mavs but 0-2 ATS in their two regular-season meetings so far and both games went Over the total.

Utah did a good job defending Luka Feb. 25, holding him to 23 points on 44.6% true shooting (.333/.333/1.000) with a minus-22 net rating.

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Jazz at Mavericks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Jazz +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Mavericks -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Jazz +1.5 (-110) | Mavericks -1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 217.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Jazz at Mavericks key injuries

Jazz (not officially submitted)

  • None

Mavericks

  • PG Jalen Brunson (foot) questionable
  • PG Luka Doncic (toe) probable
  • PF Maxi Kleber (ankle) questionable

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Jazz at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Jazz 113, Mavericks 105

Money line

“LEAN” to the JAZZ (+100) since I prefer their spread because Utah is playing its third game in the last four nights.

The Jazz have much higher effective field goal shooting and rebounds per game differentials and do a better job working the officials than the Mavericks. Utah is second in offensive FT/FGA rate and first in defensive.

Dallas also struggles down the stretch in close games and Utah is a little more efficient versus quality opponents.

The Mavs have a minus-14.7 net rating in the “clutch” (ranked 26th). “Clutch” is defined by games within a 5-point margin inside of five minutes to play.

The Jazz have a plus-3.1 adjusted net rating versus teams in the top-10 of net efficiency (ranked third), according to CleaningTheGlass.com.

On top of that, communication and team defense is the best way to defend Luka and these are two areas in which Utah obviously excels. The Mavs are just 2-6 SU versus the Jazz in games Luka is active for and Luka has a career minus-9 net rating against Utah.

I prefer Utah’s spread but, either way, the JAZZ (+100) are the right side despite their possible fatigue at the end of this road trip.

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Against the spread

The JAZZ PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this contest based on all the previous analyses.

There could be some additional value on the Jazz here since they have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.

Since big Rudy Gobert returned from injury the Jazz are 5-2 SU and are just 14th in net rating over that span mostly due to a 34-point shellacking Utah took at the hands of the New Orleans Pelicans Friday.

Otherwise, the JAZZ +1.5 (-110) are getting back into form.

Over/Under

PASS because the Under 217.5 (-108) is the only way I’d bet the total but my Jazz-Mavericks prediction is still above the projected total.

However, there could be fewer visits to the foul line since the officiating crew assigned to this game has a combined 49-69 O/U record.

Also, Utah is 4-5 O/U in the second of a back-to-back and 14-16-1 O/U on the road. While Dallas is 7-15-1 O/U as a home favorite and 5-7-1 O/U with a rest advantage.

That said, I prefer the Utah sides more so than the total, which is beneath my buy-price.

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