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Houston Rockets at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

The Houston Rockets (16-48) visit FTX Arena Monday to take on the Miami Heat (43-22). Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Rockets vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Heat are coming off an impressive 99-82 win over the Philadelphia 76ers as they covered as 5.5-point home favorites. Miami has been hot lately with four straight covers. It is 38-26-1 against the spread (ATS) this season.

Miami is led by G Jimmy Butler who is averaging 21.4 points per game. The Heat’s strength lies defensively as they have the fourth-best opponents’ field goal percentage (44.3%).

The Rockets will play the second night of a back-to-back as they covered a 10.5-point spread and won outright 123-112 over the Memphis Grizzlies Sunday.

The Rockets are just 4-6 ATS over their last 10 outs but are 3-2 ATS as double-digit road underdogs. Houston is led by C Christian Wood who is averaging 17.9 points per game.

Rockets at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rockets +850 (bet $100 to win $850) | Heat -1800 (bet $1,800 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Rockets +14.5 (-107) | Heat -14.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 225.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Rockets at Heat key injuries

Rockets (not officially submitted)

  • Dennis Schroder (ankle) questionable

Heat

  • G Kyle Lowry (personal) out
  • Caleb Martin (Achillies) questionable

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Rockets at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 119, Rockets 110

Money line

PASS.

Both sides of this are unplayable at their current price tags. The Heat are 22-7 straight up at home, but betting on them at -1800 yields so little return that it makes the risk not worthwhile.

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Against the spread

BET the ROCKETS +14.5 (-107).

The Heat have been the far better-covering team this season, but that doesn’t stay true when it comes to getting this many points on the spread.

Miami is just 1-5 ATS when favored by double digits. The Heat won by 4 points at home against San Antonio as 13-point favorites and defeated Brooklyn at home by 4 points as 11-point favorites across just their last 10 games.

The Heat covered as 5-point favorites in a 120-110 win in Houston the first time these teams met on New Year’s Eve.

Assuming the Rockets can manage the same success on the offensive glass (Miami sits 11th in defensive rebounding rate yet Houston had 15 offensive rebounds in that Dec. 31 battle), they should keep this game close.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the OVER 225.5 (-112).

Without Lowry to bring the offensive stability, the Heat could be in for a shootout. The tempo of this game could mimic that of the San Antonio Spurs-Heat meeting Feb. 26 that saw a total of 262 points scored.

The Rockets rank 1st in pace and the Heat sit 29th.

Houston took 93 shots and had 18 turnovers in that first battle, and that’s been the calling card all season: a high-pace, sloppy offense which has typically resulted in the Over being a profitable bet.

Houston is 35-28-1 O/U while Miami is 38-27. It’s the better side of the total to bet in this matchup.

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