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Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and predictions

The Golden State Warriors (43-21) head to the Mile High City Monday to play the Denver Nuggets (38-26). Tip-off at Ball Arena is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State has lost four consecutive games and gone 0-4 against the spread (ATS), with the latest being a 124-116 loss to the Lakers Saturday in L.A. as a 6-point road favorite.

The Warriors are now tied for the second-best record in the Western Conference with the Memphis Grizzlies, 8 games behind the first-place Phoenix Suns.

Denver beat the New Orleans Pelicans 138-130 in overtime at home Sunday, covering as a 3.5-point favorite.

The Nuggets are 5-1 straight up (SU) and 4-2 ATS since the All-Star break and the current 6-seed in the West.

Denver is 2-0 SU and ATS versus Golden State this season and the total is 1-1 Over/Under (O/U).

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Warriors at Nuggets odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:21 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Warriors +290 (bet $100 to win $290) | Nuggets -380 (bet $380 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Warriors +7.5 (-107) | Nuggets -7.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 221.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Warriors at Nuggets key injuries

Warriors

  • PG Steph Curry (hand) out
  • PF Draymond Green (back) out
  • SF Andre Iguodala (back) out
  • SG Klay Thompson (injury management) out
  • SF Andrew Wiggins (foot) out

Nuggets (not officially submitted)

  • PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
  • F Michael Porter Jr. (back) out

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Warriors at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 118, Warriors 107

Money line

PASS because there’s no way I’d lay it with the Nuggets (-380) or with any team at this price.

Also, I wouldn’t be shocked if Denver sat reigning MVP Nikola Jokic on the second of its back-to-back after his incredible overtime performance Sunday.

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Against the spread

“LEAN” to the NUGGETS -7.5 (-115) because the Warriors will be missing their championship core as well as Wiggins who started in this year’s All-Star game.

Denver is only 2.5 games ahead of the seventh-place Minnesota Timberwolves and seeds 7-10 compete in the postseason play-in tournament. Jokic should be out there and these teams are trending in opposite directions since the All-Star break.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the OVER 221.5 (-108) for a three-fourths unit since this should be the least popular wager in this game and typically that’s where you find value in sports betting. More than 80% of the cash is on the Under (according to Pregame.com).

Golden State has the third-worst defensive rating in the NBA over the past four games and the officiating crew assigned to this game has a combined 86-64 O/U record.

I hesitate to put a full unit on the OVER 221.5 (-108) since the Warriors are missing a ton of firepower.

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