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Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards odds, picks and predictions

The Washington Wizards (28-34) host the Indiana Pacers (22-43) Sunday at the Capital One Arena with tip-off is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Pacers vs. Wizards odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Indiana has alternated between winning and losing over the past seven games — 3-4 straight up (SU) and 4-3 against the spread (ATS) — with the latest being a 111-106 loss to the Pistons Friday in Detroit as 2.5-point favorites.

Washington has lost three of its last four games since the All-Star break (2-2 ATS) and was defeated 117-114 at home by the Atlanta Hawks Friday, but covered as 5.5-point underdogs.

Recently acquired Wizards PF Kristaps Porzingis is expected to make his team debut after being sidelined with a knee injury since the end of January.

The Pacers are 2-1 SU versus the Wizards, including two straight victories but these teams are tied 1-1-1 ATS in their season series.

Pacers at Wizards odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Pacers +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Wizards -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Pacers +2.5 (-105) | Wizards -2.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 225.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Pacers at Wizards key injuries

Pacers

  • Goga Bitadze (foot) questionable
  • SG Chris Duarte (toe) questionable

Wizards

  • PF Kristaps Porzingis (knee) probable

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Pacers at Wizards odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Wizards 113, Pacers 108

Money line

Slight “LEAN” towards the WIZARDS (-155) because this is at the fringe of my price range for Washington in this spot.

Furthermore, the Wizards are MUCH better in tight games, which this game is projected to be. For instance, Washington is 21-13 in the “clutch” with a plus-11.0 net rating (ranked sixth) while Indiana is 10-27 SU with a minus-20.2 net rating (ranked 29th).

Unless the Wizards’ ML drops to -145 or lower, Washington laying the points is my preferred play.

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Against the spread

“LEAN” to the WIZARDS -2.5 (-120) because I could see the argument for just betting Washington’s ML.

The bottom line with the Pacers +2.5 (-105) this season is they just haven’t been in sync in coach Rick Carlisle’s first year back in Indiana.

Also, the Pacers are 3-6 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point underdogs and 5-9-1 ATS on the road versus teams with a losing record.

Granted, Washington’s ATS trends aren’t pretty here. But the Wizards are 11th in the East, 2.5 games behind the Atlanta Hawks for the final playoff play-in seed so Washington needs this game like blood.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 225.5 (-108) because there’s reverse line movement headed south of the total despite heavy action on the Over and a bunch of Over-friendly trends.

According to VegasInsider.com, this total opened at 227.5 and has been lowered even though roughly two-thirds of the bets placed are on the Over. It’s a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.

Plus there’s some basketball-based logic behind the Under in Pacers-Wizards. Both teams play at a below-average pace and below-average effective field goal shooting. Also, each team has a bottom-10 defensive turnover rate so I’m not expecting a lot of points off of turnovers.

The UNDER 225.5 (-108) is my favorite wager in this game, but I hesitate to wager a full unit because neither team is consistent.

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