UFC 272: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal odds, picks and prediction

In a welterweight fight in the main event, Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal meet Saturday at UFC 272 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The early prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET, with the prelims starting at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+ and the main card on pay-per-view starting at 10 p.m. ET.

Covington lost against Kamaru Usman last time out at UFC 268 in a fight for the strap back in November. He’ll be looking to get back on track and into position for another title shot. Two of his past three fights have finished inside the distance, but six of his past eight bouts have ended up going the distance.

Masvidal has lost two straight bouts, both to Usman with his most recent fight at UFC 261 last April 24. Four of Masvidal’s past five bouts have ended inside the distance, with three KO/TKO wins and a second-round knockout loss in the April Usman fight.

Masvidal enters this fight with a 2-inch reach advantage, and a slight lead in significant strikes landed per minute at 4.22-to-4.14. Covington will be looking to get the fight to the mat, where he has a distinct advantage, including a 4.10-to-1.54 takedown average.

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UFC 272 Covington vs. Masvidal: Odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:52 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Covington -350 (bet $350 to win $100) | Masvidal +255 (bet $100 to win $255)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -145 | No +105)

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UFC 272 Covington vs. Masvidal: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Records: Covington (16-3) | Masvidal (35-15)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

Covington (-350) is a heavy favorite, costing 3.5 times your potential return. That’s a little too expensive. Instead, get a little more specific for the finish.

The favorite has ended up going the distance in six of his past eight fights. As such, play COVINGTON BY POINTS (-109) on the method of victory at near even-money for a much better value.

Over/Under (O/U)

Play YES: FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE (-145). Covington has involved the judges frequently in his fights. While Masvidal has ended up going the distance in just one of his past five fights, he has ended up going the distance in 11 of his past 17 bouts at the UFC level dating back to Nov. 6, 2013.

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