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Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves odds, picks and predictions

The Golden State Warriors (43-18) visit Target Center Tuesday to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves (33-29). Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Timberwolves odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Warriors are coming off an embarrassing 107-101 loss as 3.5-point home favorites to the Dallas Mavericks Sunday. Leading 93-74 with 9:59 to go, Golden State was outscored 26-1 over the next eight-plus minutes in the loss.

Golden State is just 2-7-1 against the spread (ATS) over its last 10 games, and 2-5 straight up (SU) over its last seven as the absence of four-time All-Star PF Draymond Green looms large. Overall, Golden State is 30-27-4 ATS.

Minnesota is 31-29-2 ATS, coming off a 127-122 road win at Cleveland Monday, covering as a 3.5-point favorite. The Timberwolves, 5-4-1 ATS over their last 10 games, are 15-14-1 ATS at home. Minnesota’s 113.3 points per game ranks sixth in the NBA.

Minnesota is 2-1 against Golden State this season, 1-1 without Green. The Timberwolves won 119-99 at home as a 5-point favorite Jan. 16. Golden State claimed a 124-115 home victory as a 6.5-point fav Jan. 27.

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Warriors at Timberwolves odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:44 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Warriors -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Timberwolves +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
  • Against the spread: Warriors -1.5 (-112) | Timberwolves +1.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 232.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Warriors at Timberwolves key injuries

Warriors

  • PF Nemanja Bjelica (quadriceps) questionable
  • PF Draymond Green (back) out
  • SG Klay Thompson (illness) out

Timberwolves (not yet submitted)

  • None

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Warriors at Timberwolves odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Timberwolves 118, Warriors 115

Money line

BET TIMBERWOLVES (+102).

The Warriors still have the best defensive rating in the NBA, but when it comes to their play in February, they dropped out of the top half of the league, ranking 16th in defensive rating.

Green’s absence has been increasingly difficult for Golden State, and the size that Minnesota has should be key a difference with him out.

C Karl-Anthony Towns (6-11), PF Jaden McDaniels (6-9) and PF Jarred Vanderbilt (6-9) are all as tall as or taller than Warriors starting C Kevon Looney (6-9). The Wolves’ size advantage will give them the edge.

Beside the Warriors being 2-5 SU over the last seven games, they’re 1-6 ATS over that stretch. They haven’t been playing well, and the Timberwolves, who are 18-12 at home, should come out on top.

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Against the spread

PASS.

The Wolves haven’t had a one-point loss all season, so I don’t find the value in the more expensive 1.5-point spread.

Over/Under

LEAN to the OVER 232.5 (-112).

Minnesota is the best team Over team in the NBA with an O/U of 38-24. The Wolves play with the third-highest pace in the NBA as well.

While the Warriors are just 25-34-2 O/U, they are 4-1-1 O/U in their last six games, and as their defense slips, they’ve seen more totals go Over the projected number.

With the stardom on display in two-time MVP PG Stephen Curry for Golden State and Towns and SF Anthony Edwards for Minnesota, OVER 232.5 (-112) is the better play here.

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