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Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals odds, picks and prediction

The Toronto Maple Leafs (34-14-4) take on the Washington Capitals (28-17-9) at Capital One Arena in Washington Monday. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we look at the Maple Leafs vs. Capitals odds and lines, and make our expert NHL picks, predictions and bets.

The Maple Leafs are coming off a wild, 10-7, victory in Detroit Saturday, easily extending their streak with two or more goals to 17 consecutive games. The Over is 12-4-1 during that 17-game run.

The Capitals had a disappointing past couple of games, falling 2-1 in Philadelphia Saturday, and 4-1 on the road at N.Y. Rangers Thursday. That’s now five losses in the past eight games.

Washington has dropped five straight at home since its last win on home ice Jan. 22. The Caps haven’t won in regulation at home in the past 10 games since a 5-3 win, Dec. 29, against the Nashville Predators.

Maple Leafs at Capitals odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Maple Leafs -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Capitals +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs -1.5 (+170) | Capitals +1.5 (-230)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

Maple Leafs at Capitals projected goalies

Jack Campbell (23-8-4, 2.55 GAA, .917 SV%, 4 SO) vs. Ilya Samsonov (17-9-3, 2.85 GAA, .904 SV%, 3 SO)

Campbell has coughed up four or more goals in each of his past three starts, and he was on his way to a third straight loss Saturday except for the extraordinary goal support.

Samsonov has dropped each of his past two starts, allowing six goals on 43 total shots in a pair of losses in Philadelphia and New York. He is 4-4-0 with a 3.04 GAA and .907 SV% in seven starts and nine appearances in February.

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Maple Leafs at Capitals odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Capitals 4, Maple Leafs 3

Money line

The CAPITALS (+115) have definitely had their issues lately, especially on home ice. Their top player, Alex Ovechkin, might be a little distracted lately, too, due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and people pressing him for his thoughts on the situation. However, Washington has dominated Toronto in recent seasons, posting 16 wins in the past 22 meetings, and 19 of the past 26 battles in D.C.

Against the spread

The Capitals +1.5 (-230) will cost you over two times your potential stake, and that’s just too expensive. If you like Washington, just play them straight up.

AVOID.

Over/Under

The OVER 6.5 (+105) is the lean, but play it lightly.

As mentioned above, Toronto has scored two or more goals in 17 straight, hitting the Over at a 12-4-1 clip during that stretch. And the Over is 11-3-2 in the past 15 for the Leafs against teams with a winning record, while cashing in five of the past seven meetings in this series. The Over is also 14-6 in the past 20 at home for the Caps.

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