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San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies odds, picks and predictions

The Memphis Grizzlies (42-20) host the San Antonio Spurs (24-37) Monday at FedExForum for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Spurs vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

San Antonio is 1-1 straight up (SU) and 2-0 against the spread (ATS) since the All-Star break, including a 133-129 loss to the Heat Saturday in Miami as a 13-point road underdog. On the road, the Spurs are 13-19 SU but 18-13-1 ATS.

Memphis split its first two games following the All-Star Game, also going 1-1 ATS. The Grizzlies recently won at the Chicago Bulls 116-110 Saturday, covering as 2.5-point favorites. The Grizzlies are 20-10 SU and 18-12 ATS at home.

The Grizzlies have won five consecutive meetings with the Spurs (4-1 ATS), including the first two of this season’s head-to-head series (2-0 ATS).

Also seeBet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA February 28 breakdown

Spurs at Grizzlies odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:32 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Spurs +300 (bet $100 to win $300) | Grizzlies -400 (bet $400 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Spurs +7.5 (-102) | Grizzlies -7.5 (-122)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 237.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Spurs at Grizzlies key injuries

Spurs

  • SF Doug McDermott (knee) questionable

Grizzlies

  • SF Dillon Brooks (ankle) out
  • PF Brandon Clarke (eye) questionable

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Spurs at Grizzlies odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Grizzlies 114, Spurs 110

Money line

PASS even though I like San Antonio plus the points here.

Because the Grizzlies (-400) have dominated the Spurs (+300) in recent seasons, I won’t be “sprinkling” on the underdogs’ ML.

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Against the spread

BET SPURS +7.5 (-102) because they can minimize some of the things the Grizzlies do well and there’s slight reverse-line movement (RLM) heading in San Antonio’s direction.

Memphis likes to force turnovers, leading to easy buckets and getting out in transition. But San Antonio is first in offensive-turnover rate, sixth in points off of turnovers allowed and ninth in fast-break points per game (PPG) allowed.

Also, a majority of the action is on the Grizzlies, but the sportsbooks are making Memphis cheaper. Anytime you see this kind of RLM, it should raise red flags. Ask yourself, why would the “House” make the more popular side cheaper?

Finally, San Antonio has been profitable on the road versus quality competition. According to CleaningTheGlass.com, the Spurs have a plus-4.5 ATS margin when visiting teams in the top 10 of adjusted net rating.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 237.5 (-110) for a small wager as a fade against a majority of the market, which is barreling into the Over and all the Over-friendly trends in this game.

The bottom line is it feels like very few people will be on the Under here, and taking the road less traveled in sports betting is typically where you find value.

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