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Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

The Chicago Bulls (39-22) head to South Beach Monday to play the Miami Heat (40-21). Tip-off at FTX Arena is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Bulls vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Chicago has split its first two games (both at home) following the All-Star break, first beating the Atlanta Hawks 112-108 Thursday then losing to the Memphis Grizzlies 116-110 Saturday.

Miami is 2-0 straight up (SU) and 1-1 against the spread (ATS) to start its second half. The Heat trounced the Knicks 115-110 in New York Friday then eked past the San Antonio Spurs 133-129 at home as 13-point favorites Saturday.

The Heat won and covered their first two meetings with the Bulls (107-104 Nov. 27 and 118-92 Dec. 11) and both games went Over the total.

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Bulls at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:05 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Bulls +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Heat -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Bulls +4.5 (-108) | Heat -4.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 221.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Bulls at Heat key injuries

Bulls

  • PG Lonzo Ball (knee) out
  • SG Alex Caruso (wrist) out
  • Nikola Vucevic (ankle) probable

Heat

  • PG Kyle Lowry (personal reasons) out

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Bulls at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 117, Bulls 111

Money line

PASS since I only “lean” to Miami covering the spread and there’s no way I’d lay it with the Heat (-190).

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Against the spread

“LEAN” to the HEAT -4.5 (-112) for a half-unit because this is a sharp line and my favorite wager in this contest is the Over.

However, Miami performs much better against tough competition. The Heat are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games versus teams with a 60.0% winning rate or higher and the Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in those spots.

Miami is also 12-6 SU versus teams in the top-10 of net efficiency with a plus-5.5 adjusted net rating (ranked second) and plus-6.8 ATS margin (ranked second) according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

While Chicago technically only ranks 12th in adjusted net rating, the Bulls are 1 game behind the Heat for the 1-seed in the East and are eighth in net rating over the past five games.

Over/Under

BET the OVER 221.5 (-107) for 1 unit for a variety of reasons. First of all, all three of the referees assigned for this game have officiated more Overs and the officiating crew has a combined 66-55 O/U record.

Both teams excel at getting to the charity stripe, which gives me more confidence in our Over considering the officiating crew’s O/U record. Chicago is sixth in offensive FT/FGA rate and Miami is 28th in defensive FT/FGA rate.

These teams also have a combined 29-23 O/U record when playing opponents with a winning record. In fact, the Bulls are 4-0 O/U in their last four games versus teams with a winning record and the Heat are 5-0 O/U in their last five games versus winning teams.

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