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Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors odds, picks and predictions

The Dallas Mavericks (35-25) stop by Chase Center Sunday to play the Golden State Warriors (43-17) at 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Dallas opened its final stretch Friday with a 114-109 road loss at the Utah Jazz but covered as a 6.5-point underdog. The Mavericks are 15-14 straight up (SU) and 17-12 against the spread (ATS) on the road.

Golden State blasted the Trail Blazers 132-95 Thursday in Portland, easily covering as a 10.5-point favorite. However, the Warriors lost four of their previous five games (0-5 ATS) entering the All-Star break. Golden State is 26-6 SU and 17-13-2 ATS at home.

These teams are 1-1 SU and ATS in their head-to-head series this season with the home team winning and covering both. The Mavs 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Warriors.

Mavericks at Warriors odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mavericks +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Warriors -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Mavericks +3.5 (-115) | Warriors -3.5 (-107)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 218.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Mavericks at Warriors key injuries

Mavericks

  • None

Warriors

  • PF Draymond Green (back) out
  • SF Andre Iguodala (back) out
  • SG Klay Thompson (illness) questionable

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Mavericks at Warriors odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 114, Mavericks 105

Money line

GIMME the WARRIORS (-155) for 1 unit because I could see this game coming down to the final possessions and it’s hard to not like Golden State if that’s the case.

The Mavericks have the worst “clutch” net rating in the NBA and are 14-16 SU in the “clutch”, which is defined by games within a 5-point margin inside of five minutes to play. The Warriors are 20-10 SU in the “clutch” with the fifth-best net rating.

Golden State is also a better rebounding and shooting team. The Warriors are seventh in rebounding rate and the Mavericks are 18th. Golden State has a plus-.049 effective field goal percentage (eFG%) differential and Dallas has a plus-.010 eFG% differential.

Finally, the Warriors perform better against tough competition. Golden State is 11-7 SU versus teams in the top-10 of net efficiency with a plus-2.6 adjusted net rating (ranked fourth) according to CleaningTheGlass.com. While Dallas is 7-10 SU versus top-10 teams with a minus-2.9 adjusted net rating.

BET the WARRIORS (-155).

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Against the spread

PASS because I’m confident enough in the Warriors to bet them outright and don’t want to sweat Golden State laying points. Plus the Mavericks have dominated the Warriors ATS in recent seasons.

Over/Under

PASS because my prediction is aligned with the market so there’s no value in me betting the total.

For what it’s worth, Dallas is 8-8 O/U as a road underdog, Golden State is 13-17-2 O/U as a home favorite and the Over has cashed in four of the last five Mavericks-Warriors meetings.

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