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Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves odds, picks and predictions

The Minnesota Timberwolves (31-28) host the Memphis Grizzlies (41-19) Thursday at Target Center for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Memphis had a 6-game winning streak snapped in a 123-119 home loss to Portland Trail Blazers Feb. 16 heading into the All-Star break. The Grizzlies, who were 12-point favorites, failed to cover the spread for the first time in seven games.

Minnesota is 6-3 straight up (SU) and 5-3-1 against the spread (ATS) in February. The Timberwolves lost as 1.5-point home favorites to the Toronto Raptors 103-91 Feb. 16 in their most recent outing.

The Grizzlies are 2-1 SU/ATS versus the T-Wolves this season with a 2-1 Over/Under record.

Also seeBet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA February 24 breakdown

Grizzlies at Timberwolves odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:04 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Grizzlies -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Timberwolves +122 (bet $100 to win $122)
  • Against the spread: Grizzlies -2.5 (-120) | Timberwolves +2.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 238.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Grizzlies at Timberwolves key injuries

Grizzlies

  • SF Dillon Brooks (ankle) out

Timberwolves

  • None

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Grizzlies at Timberwolves odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Grizzlies 119, Timberwolves 112

Money line

BET GRIZZLIES (-150) for 1.25 units.

They have a similar identity as the Timberwolves but are much more consistent and efficient.

Both teams pressure ball handlers, crash the glass and get out in transition. But the Grizzlies are ninth in adjusted offensive-turnover rate (TOV%), second in transition points added per 100 possessions and first in adjusted offensive-rebounding rate, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.

On the other hand, the T-Wolves are 18th in adjusted offensive TOV%, last in adjusted defensive-rebounding rate and 27th in fast-break points per game allowed.

These are most likely the reasons behind Memphis’ dominance over Minnesota in recent seasons. The Grizzlies are 8-1 SU/ATS in their nine eight meetings with the T-Wolves.

Minnesota’s lone victory was a 43-point beatdown (138-95) at home Nov. 20. Perhaps, that’s why we are getting the GRIZZLIES (-150) at a cheap price.

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Against the spread

LEAN GRIZZLIES -2.5 (-120) because I’d play their money line all the way up to -165. Either way, the Grizzlies are the right side.

Memphis is 9-2 ATS as a road favorite (plus-6.7 ATS margin) and 8-4 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning record. Minnesota is 4-5 ATS as a home underdog and 2-6 ATS as an underdog getting 1 to 2.5 points.

If Memphis’ ML goes north of -165, then I’d bet the GRIZZLIES -2.5 (-120) up to 4.5-point favorites.

Over/Under

PASS.

I have a slight “lean” toward the Under 238.5 (-107) as a fade against the Over-friendly situational trends. Most of the market will probably bet the Over.

The T-Wolves rank 17th in effective field-goal shooting (eFG%), the Grizzlies rank 24th in eFG% and both teams have a below-average adjusted offensive free-throw rate.

But I’m staying away from an Under wager because both teams rank top six in pace and 10th or better in offensive rating.

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