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TCU at Texas odds, picks and prediction

The TCU Horned Frogs (17-8, 6-7 Big 12) visit Frank Erwin Center to take on the No. 22 Texas Longhorns (19-8, 8-6) Wednesday. Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the TCU vs. Texas odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

TCU enters this conference matchup having taken down West Virginia 77-67 at home Monday as a 4.5-point favorite. TCU is 5-4-1 against the spread (ATS) over its last 10 games and 13-9-3 ATS this season.

The Horned Frogs average 68.4 points per game on the season. Their defense is their strength, allowing just 63.9 points per game which is good for 39th-best in the nation.

The Longhorns are also a defensive powerhouse, allowing just 57.7 points per game, ranked fourth nationally.

However, they’re just 12-15 ATS this season and just 4-6 ATS over their last 10 games. Texas is coming off a 61-55 home loss to Texas Tech in which it failed to cover as a 4-point favorite.

Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

TCU at Texas odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:23 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: TCU +320 (bet $100 to win $320) | Texas -420 (bet $420 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): TCU +8.5 (-108) | Texas -8.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 126.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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TCU at Texas odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Texas 65, TCU 60

Money line

PASS.

I’ll take the points with the underdog and not the riskier money line odds at +320. I will note Texas, despite a strong home record, should be considered unplayable at -420.

Against the spread

BET on TCU +8.5 (-108).

This line has been distanced by Texas’s drastically better home play and also the fact that the Longhorns destroyed the Horned Frogs 73-50 in late Jan.

TCU shot just 12% from deep in that meeting and was even 12-for-21 from the free-throw line. At the very least the latter should improve in this matchup.

Texas is 4-3 since that game and TCU is 4-4 with losses to Baylor and Texas Tech. TCU is 8-5 ATS in conference games and 3-2 ATS against ranked opponents.

Texas has only covered one of its last three games in which it was spotted 8 or more points. I expect a better showing from TCU in the second meeting, one that at least covers an 8.5-point spread.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 126.5 (-110).

This is almost too low for me to consider, but given both teams have defensive-first mindsets, it makes it worth a shot.

Texas allowed just 50 points in the first matchup and is 12-15 O/U on the season. The Over hit with 123 points being scored on a projected total of 122 in that first meeting. It has a top-tier defense, holding Texas Tech to just 61 points last time out.

TCU is 12-11-2 O/U on the season and 6-6-1 O/U in conference play.

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