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Michigan at Wisconsin odds, picks and prediction

The No. 16 Wisconsin Badgers (20-5, 11-4 Big Ten) host the Michigan Wolverines (14-10, 8-6) Sunday. Tip-off at Kohl Center is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (on CBS). Below, we look at the Michigan vs. Wisconsin odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

Michigan is 3-1 straight up (SU) and 2-2 against the spread (ATS) over its past four games, including an 84-79 win at Iowa Thursday as a 5-point underdog. The Wolverines are ninth in net rating in the Big Ten with the second-toughest schedule, according to USA TODAY’s Jeff Sagarin.

Wisconsin also has won three of its past four games (2-2 ATS) with the latest being a 74-69 upset of Indiana Tuesday as a 3-point road underdog. The Badgers are eighth in net rating in the Big Ten with the sixth-toughest schedule.

The Wolverines won and covered both meetings with the Badgers last season and each contest went Under the total.

Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Michigan at Wisconsin odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:16 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Michigan +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Wisconsin -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Michigan +2.5 (-105) | Wisconsin -2.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 138.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Michigan at Wisconsin odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Michigan 73, Wisconsin 67

Money line

SPRINKLE on MICHIGAN (+125) with the plan of betting Wolverines plus the points harder.

These teams are nearly equal in experience, but Michigan has a lot more talent. The Wolverines have eight five- or four-star recruits, while the Badgers have just two four-star recruits.

Furthermore, Michigan was 2-0 SU and ATS versus Wisconsin last season because the Wolverines dominated the glass and were a far better 3-point shooting team.

Michigan still has those edges over Wisconsin. The Wolverines have a plus-5.6 rebound-per-game margin and the Badgers have a plus-0.4 rebound-per-game margin.

According to KenPom.com, Michigan has a positive effective field-goal percentage (eFG%) differential whereas Wisconsin has a negative eFG% differential.

Again, I’d only SPRINKLE on MICHIGAN (+125) because the Wolverines’ spread is the much sharper play.

Against the spread

BET MICHIGAN +2.5 (-105) heavier than or instead of its money line because this is just a better spot for the Wolverines.

The underdog has covered 17 of the last 23 Michigan-Wisconsin meetings. The Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games and 4-6 ATS at home versus teams with a winning record.

For the record, MICHIGAN +2.5 (-105) is my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

LEAN to the OVER 138.5 (-115) for a small wager if at all, based on a few trendy reasons.

These teams are a combined 27-13 O/U versus teams with a winning record, Michigan is 10-4 O/U as a road underdog since 2019 (head coach Juwan Howard’s first year on the job) and Wisconsin is 27-15 O/U as a home favorite over that span.

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