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Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

The Dallas Mavericks (33-24) head to South Beach Tuesday to play the Miami Heat (37-20) at the FTX Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Dallas had a 4-game winning and covering streak snapped by losing the second game of a home back-to-back with the Los Angeles Clippers 99-97 Saturday.

Miami has won 5 consecutive games – going 4-1 against the spread (ATS). The latest victory was a 115-111 decision over the Nets in Brooklyn, but the Heat failed to cover as 11-point favorites.

The Heat smacked the Mavs 125-110 in Dallas Nov. 2 as 2.5-point favorites and the Over cashed on a 211-point total.

Mavericks at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mavericks +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Heat -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Mavericks +4.5 (-112) | Heat -4.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under: 208.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Mavericks at Heat key injuries

Mavericks

  • SF Reggie Bullock (hip) doubtful
  • PG Trey Burke (shoulder) questionable

Heat

  • SF Jimmy Butler (shoulder) questionable
  • PG Tyler Herro (knee) out
  • SF Caleb Martin (Achilles) questionable

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Mavericks at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 107, Heat 104

Money line

SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+145) for a small wager with the plan of betting their spread harder. Dallas matches up well with Miami and we cannot sleep on the Herro’s absence in this game. Herro scored 25 points on 55.0% shooting with 4 assists and 0 turnovers versus the Mavs Nov. 2.

Furthermore, the Heat crash the glass, pressure ball handlers and can get hot from 3-point land. The Mavs are eighth in offensive turnover rate, first in defensive-rebounding rate and third in both defensive 3-point shooting percentage and 3-point attempts allowed per game.

Also, Miami struggles at home against good teams and Dallas is ninth in net rating. The Heat are 3-4 overall versus top-10 teams with a minus-4.1 adjusted-net rating, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.

Finally, these teams play a similar style and a ton of half-court basketball, but Dallas gets better looks than Miami (according to ShotQuality.com). The Mavs have the third-best shot quality differential winning percentage while the Heat are 10th.

Again, I’d only SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+145) because their spread is the much sharper play.

Against the spread

Definitely BET the MAVERICKS +4.5 (-112) heavier than or instead of their money line. It is favorite wager in this game

Dallas is 7-4 ATS versus teams with a winning record and has covered two of its past three meetings with the Heat, while Miami has a minus-4.2 ATS margin versus top-10 teams (ranked 25th).

Over/Under

PASS.

My prediction is higher than the projected total, but I don’t have a ton of confidence in those numbers because there’s too much variance for how this game plays out.

Both teams play at a bottom-10 pace, so there might be fewer possessions, which typically means less scoring. But Miami is 11th in 3-point attempt rate and Dallas is seventh, and if either team gets hot from deep then an Under bet is in peril.

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