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Denver Nuggets at Toronto Raptors odds, picks and predictions

The Denver Nuggets (30-25) stop by Scotiabank Arena Saturday to play the Toronto Raptors (31-23) at 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. Raptors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Denver lost 108-102 at the Boston Celtics Friday but beat the closing line as a 7-point road underdog. The Nuggets are 3-4 straight up (SU) over the last two weeks but 5-2 against the spread (ATS).

Toronto won and covered its eighth consecutive game by hammering the Rockets 139-120 in Houston Thursday. The Raptors are fourth in net rating and seventh in effective field goal shooting during that span.

Also seeBet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA February 12 breakdown

Nuggets at Raptors odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:23 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nuggets +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Raptors -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Nuggets +4.5 (-112) | Raptors -4.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under: 223.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Nuggets at Raptors key injuries

Nuggets

  • PG Monte Morris (concussion) out
  • SG Jamal Murray (knee) out
  • SF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out

Raptors

  • PG Fred VanVleet (groin) questionable

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Nuggets at Raptors odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Raptors 119, Nuggets 108

Money line

PASS.

Even though I’d much prefer Toronto SU without having to sweat the Raptors covering 4.5 points, the -180 tag is just a little out of my price range for an NBA regular-season favorite.

Against the spread

BET the RAPTORS -4.5 (-108) because this is a much better spot for Toronto.

Denver is 9-10 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage and Toronto is 9-5 ATS when playing with a rest advantage. The Raptors are 11-3 ATS at home versus teams with a winning record.

The Raptors are 4-1 straight up (SU) with a plus-11.6 adjusted net rating (ranked third) when playing opponents in the second game of a back-to-back, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

More importantly, Toronto has a major edge in the ball security department, especially with the injury of Morris. Denver is 20th in adjusted offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and that percentage goes up by 1.9% when Morris is off the floor, per CTG.

The Nuggets had 21 turnovers against the Celtics Friday, which is 7 more than their regular-season average of 13.9 turnovers per game entering last night. The Raptors also have the best adjusted defensive TOV% and are tied for the third in points off of turnovers per game.

The RAPTORS -4.5 (-108) is my favorite wager in this contest.

Over/Under

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 223.5 (-112) for a small wager since I prefer the Toronto sides more than the total in this matchup.

However, the Raptors are 10-4 O/U when playing with a rest disadvantage with a plus-9.9 total margin and the Nuggets are 6-3 O/U in the second of a back-to-back with a plus-3.2 total margin.

Also, not only does Toronto have the aforementioned ball security edge that should lead to easy points for the Raptors, but Nuggets big Nikola Jokic can certainly have his way on Toronto’s small frontcourt.

It’s only a slight “LEAN” towards the OVER 223.5 (-112) because both teams are in the bottom 10 of pace and offensive FT/FGA rate.

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