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Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

The struggling Brooklyn Nets (29-26) head to South Beach Saturday to play the Miami Heat (36-20) at FTX Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Nets vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Brooklyn dropped its 10th consecutive game Thursday (1-7-2 against the spread (ATS)) by losing to the Wizards 113-112 in Washington but pushed as a 1-point road underdog.

Miami won its fourth straight game Thursday (4-0 ATS) by smacking around the Pelicans 112-97 in New Orleans, covering as a 4.5-point road favorite.

The Heat dismantled the Nets 106-93 in Brooklyn as 3.5-point road underdogs Oct. 27 in their first meeting.

Also seeBet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA February 12 breakdown

Nets at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nets +470 (bet $100 to win $470) | Heat -700 (bet $700 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Nets +10.5 (-107) | Heat -10.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 221.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Nets at Heat key injuries

Nets

  • SG Seth Curry (trade pending) questionable
  • SF Kevin Durant (knee)
  • Andre Drummond (trade pending) questionable
  • PG Ben Simmons (not with team) out

Heat

  • SG Tyler Herro (knee) questionable
  • SF Caleb Martin (Achilles) questionable
  • PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable

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Nets at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 112, Nets 98

Money line

PASS.

Miami is obviously the right side but the Heat are far too expensive at this price and the Nets are a stay-away until Durant returns.

KD has missed every game since Jan. 17 with a knee injury and Brooklyn is 2-11 SU since then with a minus-10.4 adjusted net rating (ranked 28th) and a minus-5.2 ATS margin (ranked last), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

The Heat are 9-4 SU with a plus-9.0 adjusted net rating (ranked third) and plus-2.2 ATS margin (ranked sixth) across that same span.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the HEAT -10.5 (-115) for a small wager, if at all, because my favorite play in this game is the Under Brooklyn team total.

However, Miami’s vibrant night-life gives the Heat a bigger home-court advantage for weekend games and Miami is 7-3 ATS at home versus teams with a winning record.

That said, this is mostly a fade against a Nets team that’s been awful lately and could be without the new pieces acquired from the James Harden trade.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 215.5 (-110) since the Heat play at a snail’s pace and their defense has been locked in over the past two weeks. Miami has the second-best adjusted defensive rating in the last 14 days, per CTG.

However, my favorite bet in this game is the UNDER NETS 105.5 TEAM TOTAL (-122) because of Brooklyn’s missing pieces and Miami’s elite defense.

The Nets are 24th in adjusted offensive rating over the past two weeks (per CTG) and have gone Under their team total in four of their last five games, according to EVAnalytics.com.

Miami has also held opponents to just 94.3 points per game over the last three games (ranked second) and held Brooklyn to just 93 points in their first meeting this season.

Again, UNDER NETS 105.5 TEAM TOTAL (-122) is my favorite bet in this game but there’s still some value in the Under 215.5 (-110) for the game.

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