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Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

May 13, 2021; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Jack Flaherty (22) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

The Pittsburgh Pirates (17-24) wrap up a two-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals (24-18) Wednesday at Busch Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

St. Louis extended its winning streak over Pittsburgh to eight games with Tuesday’s 5-2 win. First-year Cardinals 3B Nolan Arenado continues to shine in his new digs as he went 2-for-3 with a 2-run home run Tuesday.

Season series: Cardinals 4-0.

RHP Trevor Cahill is on the mound for the Pirates. Cahill is 1-4 with a 5.97 ERA (34 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 across 7 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 5 1/3 IP with 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 1 K in Pittsburgh’s 5-1 loss to the Cincinnati Reds May 12.
  • Career vs. the Cardinals: 1-4 with a 4.53 ERA (45 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.49 WHIP and 7.3 K/9 over 7 starts and 8 relief appearances.
    • Vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 67 at-bats with a .343/.416/.537 slash line, 10/9 K/BB, 2 HR and 14 RBIs.

RHP Jack Flaherty is the projected starter for the Cardinals. Flaherty is 7-0 with a 2.47 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 across 8 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 2-0, in 6 IP with 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 6 K at the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday.
  • Career vs. the Pirates: 7-1 with a 2.14 ERA (63 IP, 15 ER), 0.94 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 in 10 starts.
    • Vs. Pirates on the current roster: 105 at-bats with a .200/.259/.248 slash line, 37/8 K/BB, 0 HR and 9 RBIs.

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Pirates at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:37 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Pirates +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Cardinals -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Pirates +1.5 (-115) | Cardinals -1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Cardinals 5, Pirates 1

Money line (ML)

PASS since the Cardinals (-225) is a bit out of my price range. Although, St. Louis is the right side since Flaherty has been in cruise control thus far and Cahill’s numbers against the Cardinals are poor.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the CARDINALS -1.5 (-105) for 1 unit because of the lopsided starting pitching matchup and all four of St. Louis’s victories over Pittsburgh this season have been by at least three runs.

Flaherty is far more effective at home than on the road. His career ERA is 1.26 lower at home with a 0.89 home WHIP compared to a 1.23 road WHIP. Opponents have a lower batting average by 37 percentage points vs. Flaherty in St. Louis.

Also, Flaherty’s advanced pitching numbers vs. the Pirates are more impressive than his basic pitching stats.

Flaherty has a 1.49 FIP, .259 expected wOBA, .302 expected slugging percentage and 30.7% strikeout rate vs. hitters in this Pittsburgh lineup.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-115) for a quarter unit since that’s where the presumed “sharp” money of the market is being bet and because of Flaherty’s dominance both to start 2021 and in his career vs. Pittsburgh.

Furthermore, there are strong left to right winds predicted in the forecast for this game and both lineups are below-average in hard-hit rate vs. right-handed pitching.

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