Former World No. 1 Rory McIlroy returned to the PGA Tour’s winner circle at the Wells Fargo Championship two weeks ago. He remains in search of his first major win since 2014 and returns to another familiar venue this week in the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island. Below, we look at the 2021 PGA Championship odds for Rory McIlroy and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions to win.
McIlroy won the 2012 PGA Championship at the Ocean Course by eight strokes at 13-under par. It was his second of four career major wins to date. He enters this week at No. 15 in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings following his third career win at Quail Hollow Club.
He has since been priced as the favorite to win the 2021 PGA Championship.
Odds and best bets for Rory McIlroy at the 2021 PGA Championship
Outright winner: +1100
McIlroy has been priced among the favorites since the 2021 PGA Championship futures odds opened last summer following Collin Morikawa’s win at the 2020 championship at TPC Harding Park. His odds peaked at +1600 following a poor stretch of play early this year which included missed cuts at The Players Championship and the Masters.
There’s not much value left at +1100 with a $100 bet returning a profit of $1,100 and an implied win probability of 8.33% in the 156-man field. He is the rightful favorite, but the better value lies in the assortment of available prop bets.
Top-10 finish: +130
It’d be wise to take the insurance of the top-10 finish for McIlroy while still getting plus-money. There were 18 players within four shots of runner-up David Lynn amid difficult weather conditions in 2012.
The four-time major champ flashed his old form at the Wells Fargo and made several key sand saves in the final round. That part of his game, along with his second-ranked driving distance, will be key at the lengthy Ocean Course.
Top GB and Ireland: +200
There are several options for McIlroy in the “Top Player” market, but top GB and Ireland is the safest. He’s the highest-ranked golfer from the Golfweek rankings in this 19-man group and it removes the threat of the second-ranked Jon Rahm from the Top European pool.
Leader after 1st round: +2200
McIlroy was second to Carl Pettersson after 18 holes in 2012 after firing a 5-under-par 67. He matched that number in Round 3 and his final round 66 tied for the second-best 18-hole score of the tournament.
Even amid his struggles early this year, he has fired three rounds of 66, including the second round of the Wells Fargo.
In the last group in the final round: +500
If McIlroy is in the final group heading into Sunday, bettors should feel pretty good about his chances of taking home his third career Wanamaker Trophy. We’re already hedging the outright ticket with a top-10 finish and there’s better value with a top-5 placing (+250), as well.
PASS on this undervalued prop.
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