Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

May 12, 2021; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) pitches against the Washington Nationals in the sixth inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Phillies (21-20) host the Miami Marlins (18-22) Tuesday to start a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

This is the first regular-season matchup between the Marlins and Phillies. Miami won last year’s season series 7-3 en route to an NL Wild Card berth.

Miami is yet to announce an official starter but BetMGM has RHP Cody Poteet as the Marlins’ projected starter.

Poteet made his MLB debut in a start against the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday. He picked up a win in 5 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 6 K.

RHP Zack Wheeler is on the mound for the Phillies. He is 3-2 with a 2.85 ERA (53 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 over 8 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 6 IP with 2 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 7 K in Philly’s 5-2 win at the Washington Nationals Wednesday.
  • Career vs. Marlins: 8-3 with a 1.87 ERA (101 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 0.94 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 across 15 starts.
    • vs. Marlins on the current roster: 72 at-bats with a .194/.259/.333 slash line, 32/6 K/BB, 3 HR and 11 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:35 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Phillies -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-145) | Phillies -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)


Phillies 4, Marlins 1

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the PHILLIES (-165) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because Philly’s First 5 Innings price is 10 cents on the dollar…/zack-wheeler-554430er than its full-game price and Wheeler has pitched like an ace since joining Philly last season.

Wheeler has a 3.54 FIP, an opponent’s .253 wOBA and .339 expected slugging percentage vs. current Marlins hitters. On the season, Wheeler grades in the 80th percentile of expected wOBA, 79th percentile in barrel% and 76th percentile of expected slugging percentage.

He logged a quality start in four of his past six outings and has beaten the Marlins in four of his last five starts against them with the only loss an 8-inning, 10-strikeout performance in 2019 (with the New York Mets).

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the PHILLIES -1.5 (+120) for a quarter unit because Philly’s bullpen has been mediocre, which is an improvement on its dreadful 2020 campaign but Wheeler eats up innings.

Also, since the Phillies had an off-day Monday, their bullpen should be rested and their better relievers available for work Tuesday.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-105) for one-third of a unit because despite Philly’s mashers, the lineup is below-average in several advanced hitting categories. Philadelphia is also 3-5 O/U in Wheeler starts and the Under cashed in each of Miami’s last five games against a right-handed starter.

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

More Stories

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday's Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

Read the full article

From The Web Ads by Zergnet

New York Yankees at Texas Rangers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday's New York Yankees at Texas Rangers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

Read the full article

Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday's Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

Read the full article
More MLB