Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and prediction

Apr 25, 2021; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez (57) throws a pitch against the Seattle Mariners in the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

The Boston Red Sox (25-17) visit the Toronto Blue Jays (22-17) Tuesday at TD Ballpark in Dunedin, Florida. First pitch is scheduled for 7:37 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Boston took two of three games in its series with the Los Angeles Angeles this weekend and the Red Sox are 6-4 in their last 10 games.

Toronto beat the Philadelphia Phillies in two of their three meetings this weekend and is 7-3 in the last 10 games.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

LHP Eduardo Rodríguez is the projected starter for the Red Sox. He is 5-1 with a 4.15 ERA (39 IP, 18 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 7 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss in 6 IP with 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 9 K vs. the Oakland Athletics Wednesday.
  • Career vs. Blue Jays: 5-4 with a 4.52 ERA (81 2/3 IP, 41 ER), 1.15 WHIP and 8.2 K/9 over 14 starts and 1 relief appearance.
    • vs. Blue Jays on the current roster: 93 at-bats with a .247/.283/.505 slash line and 8 HR.

LHP Hyun Jin Ryu is projected to start for the Blue Jays. He is 3-2 with a 2.95 ERA (39 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 7 starts.

  • Last outing: Win in 7 IP with 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K Wednesday at the Atlanta Braves.
  • Career vs. Red Sox: 0-2 with a 4.24 ERA (17 IP, 8 ER), 1.24 WHIP and 7.9 K/9 over 3 starts.
    • vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 62 at-bats with a .274/.318/.452 slash line and 1 HR.

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Red Sox at Blue Jays odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Blue Jays -140 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-170) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)


Red Sox 5, Blue Jays 3

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the RED SOX (+115) for a half unit because Boston has the edge in pitching (both starting and bullpen) and batting against left-handed pitching; however, since there’s a lot of value with the Red Sox on the alternate run line, I’d like to split my Boston bets.

Boston’s bullpen ranks higher in advanced pitching categories such as fourth in SIERA, xFIP, K-BB%, and sixth in home runs per nine. Toronto’s relievers are 15th or worse in SIERA, xFIP and K-BB%.

Finally, the presumed “sharp” side of the market is backing Boston outright as more than 70% of the money wagered is on the RED SOX (+115) while a slight majority of the bets placed have been with the Blue Jays, according to

Generally, it’s more profitable in sports betting to follow the money and fade the crowd of bettors.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the RED SOX +0.5 (-115) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because it’s a sharper wager than Boston’s money line and the Red Sox’s hitting against lefties.

Red Sox hitters have the fourth-best wRC+ and OPS, and fifth-best wOBA against left-handed pitching while the Blue Jays are 15th or 16th in those three advanced batting metrics.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a “lean” to the Under 9 (-115) because both starters are “top of the rotation” guys.

Furthermore, we are getting some “reverse line movement” in the market with more money being bet on the Over but oddsmakers are making the Over cheaper. It’s a red flag when the House makes the more popular side cheaper.

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