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St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

May 11, 2021; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Kwang Hyun Kim (33) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres (23-17) go for a three-game sweep of the visiting St. Louis Cardinals (23-17) on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch at Petco Park is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Padres lead 2-0

Despite missing three key position players, San Diego took the first two games of this series – 5-4 Friday and 13-3 Saturday. SS Fernando Tatis Jr., RF Wil Myers 1B Eric Hosmer and utilitymen Jurickson Profar and Jorge Mateo have been unavailable due to COVID-19 issues.

St. Louis hopes LHP Kwang Hyun Kim will salvage the series and snap the club’s 2-game slide. He is 1-0 with a 2.74 ERA (23 IP, 7 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 5 starts this season.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K at Milwaukee Brewers Tuesday – Cardinals won 6-1 in 11 innings
  • Career vs. Padres: 0-0, 7.36 ERA (3 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 5 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 1 postseason start (Game 1 of 2020 NL Wild Card Series) – Cards won 7-4

LHP Ryan Weathers, who made his MLB debut in last year’s playoffs, is projected to start for the Friars. The 21-year-old rookie is 2-1 with an 0.81 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 0.72 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 3 starts and 5 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Win, 3 IP in relief, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K at San Francisco Giants May 9 – Padres won 11-1
  • Career as starter: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 0 ER), 2 H, 4 BB, 9 K in 3 outings
  • Career vs. Cardinals: No appearances

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Cardinals at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Padres -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-200) | Padres -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Cardinals 4, Padres 3

Money line (ML)

ST. LOUIS (+105) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager. The Cardinals are 5-0 in Kim’s starts this season. The South Korean southpaw allowed just 1 run in each of his last four starts.

It should be tough night for a depleted Padres lineup, which is missing Tatis, Myers and Hosmer.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS. While the Cardinals feature a majors-best ATS record, the -200 price on St. Louis +1.5 is too much chalk.

ATS records: Cardinals 25-15 | Padres 21-19

Over/Under (O/U)

AVOID as the projected score equals 7 runs.

The lean would be to the Over 7 (-110) the way this series has gone. Plus, the O/U is 3-0-1 in Kim’s starts this season  and 2-1 in Weather’s starts.

O/U records: Cardinals 18-18-3 | Padres 18-22

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

JOHNNY’S RECORD W-L SP ROI
2021 MLB 39-43-2 10-14-1 -8.895
2020 MLB 80-59-1 39-21 +24.79
2021 (all sports) 142-128-3 59-55-1 +4.655
*SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

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