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Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Apr 18, 2021; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Freddy Peralta (51) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves (19-20) wrap up a three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers (20-20) Sunday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee is trying to prevent a three-game sweep after Atlanta won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 11-4.

Season series: Braves 2-0.

RHP Huascar Ynoa is on the rubber for the Braves. Ynoa is 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 0.89 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 across 7 starts and 1 relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Win, 6-1, in 6 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 6 K vs. the Philadelphia Phillies May 9.
  • Career vs. the Brewers: 0-0 with a 54.00 ERA (1 IP, 6 ER), 6.00 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 in 1 relief appearance (2019).

RHP Freddy Peralta is the projected starter for the Brewers. Peralta is 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA (39 IP, 12 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 14.1 K/9 over 7 starts and 1 relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 7 IP with 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB and 8 K in Milwaukee’s 6-1 loss Tuesday vs. the St. Louis Cardinals.
  • Career vs. the Braves: 1-1 with a 6.97 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 2.13 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 in 2 starts and 1 relief appearance.
    • Vs. Braves on the current roster: 40 at-bats with a .275/.408/.425 slash line, 12/8 K/BB, 0 HR and 7 RBIs.

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Braves at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:27 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Brewers -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+155) | Brewers +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Brewers 3, Braves 2

Money line (ML)

The bullpens are pretty even and both pitchers are off to an awesome start, but Milwaukee’s starter has nastier stuff than Atlanta’s.

Peralta grades in the 91st or better percentile in expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage, whiff%, hard-hit rate and K%.

While Ynoa is in the 8 percentile of hard-hit rate, 38th percentile of expected wOBA and 24th percentile in expected slugging percentage.

Furthermore, the “sharp” side of the market is backing Milwaukee whereas the “average Joe” is taking Atlanta.

According to Pregame.com, more than 80% of the money wagered is on the Brewers, but 60% of the bets placed have been on the Braves.

Typically in sports gambling, it’s more profitable to follow the money if it’s going against what the public is betting.

“LEAN” to the BREWERS (-120) for a half unit, however, because Milwaukee’s lineup is scoring the second-fewest runs per game with the third-lowest batting average and second-lowest OPS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS even though the Brewers are the right side in what should be a low-scoring affair because Milwaukee +1.5 (-190) is too expensive.

Also, Peralta’s edge over Ynoa isn’t big enough to justify taking the Brewers -0.5 (+120) First 5 Innings line. The price for Milwaukee’s First 5 Innings that I would’ve bet would be around +135.

Over/Under (O/U)

GIMME the UNDER 7.5 (-115) for 1 unit because both pitchers have been fabulous so far this season and Milwaukee’s lineup has been awful this season.

There’s not a lot more to the handicap than that. I just think there’s a good chance that this game is low-scoring because of the starters and am less sold on the Brewers’ side.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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