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Luis Nery vs. Brandon Figueroa fight odds, picks and prediction

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - NOVEMBER 23: Brandon Figueroa (R) hits Julio Ceja in the 12th round of their WBA super bantamweight bout at MGM Grand Garden Arena on November 23, 2019 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The match ended in a draw. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

We get a 12-round WBC junior featherweight title bout Saturday when Luis Nery and Brandon Figueroa meet at Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, Calif. The undercard is set to begin at 9 p.m. ET, with the Nery-Figueroa fight set for approximately 10 p.m. ET. Below, we break down the Nery vs. Figueroa odds, with boxing picks and predictions. The fight card is televised on Showtime.

Nery vs. Figueroa: Fight odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:00 a.m. ET.

Luis Nery -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Brandon Figueroa +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Draw +2000

Nery has an implied win probability of 71.43% with the -250 money line odds. Those odds can be expressed as a fraction of 2/5 or a decimal of 1.4.

Nery vs. Figueroa: Tale of the tape

Luis Nery (-250)

Nery (31-0, 24 KOs) last fought Sept. 26, 2020 at the Mohegan Sun Casino in Uncasville, Conn. with a unanimous-decision victory against Aaron Alameda. It was a rare fight to the distance, as six of his previous eight fights have ended via KO/TKO.

He changed trainers prior to the Nery fight, going with Eddy Reynoso, who made Canelo Alvarez into a superstar. But Nery’s fight was subpar against Alameda, and he has since parted ways with Reynoso after one fight, going back to Ismael Ramirez, his original trainer. He should go back to his roots, and more explosive style, rather than being a tactician.

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Brandon Figueroa (+200)

Figueroa (21-0-1, 16 KOs) heads into the ring with a three-inch height advantage over Nery, and he has almost seven inches more reach. “The Heartbreaker” bounced back from a draw with Julio Ceja Nov. 23, 2019, topping Damien Vazquez Sept. 26, 2020, at the Mohegan Sun Casino on the same card as Nery. He is 8-0-1 across his past nine fights with seven KO/TKO results.

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Nery vs. Figueroa: Odds, predictions and picks

FIGUEROA (+200) is worth a roll of the dice as a rather moderate underdog. I like his height and reach advantage as I think he’ll be able to keep Nery (-250) at arm’s length. More importantly, I don’t like the fact Nery will have a different trainer for the third consecutive fight. While yes, he goes back to Ramirez, who is his comfort blanket, Figueroa has a little more stability in his corner.

I don’t think Figueroa will be able to drop Nery for a KO/TKO win, so avoid that and you can skip the individual round betting, too. Normally I like to take a two- or three-round block, but this one should go the distance. Roll with FIGUEROA ON POINTS (+550) for a small-unit wager.

If you want some action on this bout, place your wagers at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and analysis, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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