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Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat odds, picks and prediction

Dec 18, 2019; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) dribbles the ball past Philadelphia 76ers guard Ben Simmons (25) during the first quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia 76ers (47-22) travel to South Beach Thursday for 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off against the Miami Heat (38-31) at American Airlines Arena. Below, we analyze the 76ers-Heat odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Philly had its eight-game winning streak (6-2 against the spread) snapped Tuesday in a 103-94 loss at the Indiana Pacers as 5.5-point road favorites.

The Sixers are 1.5 games in front of the second-place Brooklyn Nets and 3 games ahead of the 3-seed Milwaukee Bucks for home-court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference postseason.

Fifth-place Miami is ahead of the New York Knicks, who have the same record because of the tiebreaker and is a half-game back of the 4-seed Atlanta Hawks for home-court advantage in its first-round playoff series.

The Heat have won six of their last seven games and have a 5-1-1 ATS in those contests.

The Sixers won a back-to-back vs. the Heat Jan. 12 and 14 but only covered one of those games and Miami didn’t have Jimmy Butler in the lineup for either meeting.

76ers at Heat: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:10 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: 76ers +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Heat -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: 76ers +3 (-110) | Heat -3 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 217.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

76ers at Heat: Key injuries

76ers

  • Joel Embiid (illness) questionable
  • SF Matisse Thybulle (hand) questionable
  • SG Shake Milton (knee) probable
  • SG Furkan Korkmaz (ankle) probable

Heat

  • SF Jimmy Butler (eye) questionable

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76ers at Heat: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Heat 115, Sixers 107

Money line (ML)

PASS even though I’d prefer to bet Miami to win outright at the moment rather than lay points since Embiid’s game status is still up in the air, but the Heat (-150) is just too expensive.

I’d rather be stuck with Miami’s spread at -110 than the Heat (-150) if Embiid decides to play right before tip-off. Either way, don’t bet this until Embiid’s official status is confirmed.

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Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the HEAT -3 (-110) for a half unit because this price leads me to think Embiid is closer to “doubtful” than “questionable”, but I wouldn’t go too hard on this game until we know for sure if Embiid is playing.

Both teams thrive at getting to the charity stripe, and each team’s leading scorers (Embiid and Butler) are the main reasons for the high FTA/FG rates.

However, Miami’s defense is eighth in FTA/FG rate and Philly’s is 16th. So it could be a real struggle for the Sixers to score against the Heat’s staunch defense if Embiid is wreaking havoc on the interior.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 217.5 (-110) for a half unit because Miami’s uptick in scoring is being kind of overlooked.

In May, the Heat have the highest offensive rating and effective field goal shooting and the fourth-best assist-to-turnover rate.

Miami is giving some of it back on defense (26th in defensive rating this month) and Philly still has two All-NBA caliber players in All-Star Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris with a few shooters that can get hot.

Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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