Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Apr 8, 2021; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals in the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Puetz-USA TODAY Sports

The St. Louis Cardinals (22-15) wrap up their three-game road set Thursday with the Milwaukee Brewers (20-17) at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers with MLB picks and predictions.

This is the rubber match of the series with St. Louis winning Tuesday 6-1 in 11 innings and Milwaukee taking Wednesday’s game 4-1.

Season series: Brewers 3-2.

RHP Jack Flaherty makes his eighth start for the Cardinals. Flaherty is 6-0 with a 2.83 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 5-0, in 7 IP with 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 6 K against the Colorado Rockies Friday.
  • Career vs. the Brewers: 2-6 with a 5.72 ERA (61 1/3 IP, 39 ER), 1.34 WHIP and 12.5 K/9 over 12 starts.
    • Vs. Brewers on the current roster: 101 at-bats with a .248/.339/.436 slash line, 39/13 K/BB, 5 HR and 15 RBIs.

RHP Corbin Burnes returns after a two-week stint on the IL to start for the Brewers. Burnes is 2-2 with a 1.53 ERA (29 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 0.55 WHIP, 0.0 BB/9 and 15.0 K/9 over 5 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 8-0, in 5 IP with 4 ER, 8 H, 0 BB and 9 K vs. the Miami Marlins April 26.
  • Career vs. the Cardinals: 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.48 WHIP and 14.7 K/9 across 5 starts and 3 relief appearances.
    • Vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 70 at-bats with a .243/.293/.529 slash line, 33/3 K/BB, 5 HR and 10 RBIs.

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Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 5:27 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Brewers -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-200) | Brewers -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)


Brewers 4, Cardinals 0

Money line (ML)

GIMME the BREWERS (-135) for 1 unit because before Burnes was sidelined with an injury he was pitching as good as anyone not named Jacob deGrom and Milwaukee has owned Flaherty in recent meetings.

Statcast grades Burnes in the 94th percentile or higher in hard-hit rate, expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage, chase rate, whiff%, K% and BB%.

Compare that to Flaherty, who’s in the 38th percentile of hard-hit rate and 20th percentile in chase rate.

Also, Flaherty has lost four straight starts vs. the Brewers and has a 7.27 ERA (26 IP, 21 ER) in his last five starts against the Brew Crew.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS even though insurance either way would be awesome considering each ball club is sending their ace to the mound, but the +1.5 for either team is too expensive.

If Milwaukee’s lineup had OF Christian Yelich available and wasn’t bottom 10 in wOBA, wRC+ and WAR, then maybe I’d take a shot with Brewers -1.5 (+165).

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 6.5 (+100) since both starting pitchers are on top of their game and both lineups are terrible vs. right-handed pitching.

Both the Cardinals and Brewers are bottom 10 in wRC+, wOBA and BB/K against righties.

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