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Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and prediction

May 8, 2021; New York City, New York, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly (29) throws a pitch during first inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Marlins (16-20) wrap up their four-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks (17-20) at Chase Field. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Diamondbacks with MLB picks and predictions.

Miami snapped a four-game losing skid (two of which were to the D-Backs) by beating Arizona 3-2 last night. The D-Backs are up 2-1 this series and have outscored the Marlins 18-8 through the first three games.

Season series: Marlins 4-2.

LHP Trevor Rogers is on the rubber for the Marlins. Rogers is 4-2 with a 1.89 ERA (38 IP, 8 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 in 7 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-2, in 5 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 6 K vs. the Milwaukee Brewers Friday.
  • Career vs. the Diamondbacks: No appearances.

RHP Merrill Kelly is 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA (38 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 across 7 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-2, in 5 2/3 IP with 2 ER, 3 H, 5 BB and 6 K at the New York Mets Saturday.
  • Career vs. the Marlins: Loss, 11-6, in 6 IP with 7 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 4 K in 1 start (2019).

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Marlins at Diamondbacks odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:55 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins -1.5 (+125) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-150)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Diamondbacks 5, Marlins 3

Money line (ML)

There’s value on the DIAMONDBACKS (+110) in this spot because the casual MLB bettor is familiar at this point with how good Rogers’ stuff is but could be a little behind on how well Arizona’s lineup hits lefties.

For instance, according to Pregame.com, more money has been wagered on Arizona’s money line. Whereas more actual bets have been placed on Miami, and typically it’s sharper to follow the money rather than the crowd in sports betting.

Also, the D-Backs are third in wRC+, second in wOBA, OPS and hard-hit rate and fifth in BB/K.

Finally, Kelly is far more effective in Arizona than on the road. In fact, Kelly’s ERA is more than two runs lower at home compared to away games and he has a 1.16 home WHIP vs. a 1.42 road WHIP. In fact, Arizona has won eight of Kelly’s past nine starts at home.

“LEAN” to the DIAMONDBACKS (+110) for a quarter unit only because Arizona’s run line is a sharper play.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the DIAMONDBACKS +1.5 (-150) for a three-fourths unit because Arizona has a 65.2% cover rate (15-8 run line record) as a home underdog, and the implied win probability based on this run line price is 60.8%.

Rogers definitely has the better stuff between the two starters, and despite the Arizona lineup’s production vs. left-handed pitching, Rogers could have Miami in a position to win going into the late innings.

Furthermore, the D-Backs relievers are a bottom-10 unit in several advanced pitching metrics such as SIERA, xFIP, left-on-base percentage and K-BB%.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a “lean” to the Under because I’m high on Kelly entering this game, and Rogers has low-key been one of the better starters in the NL through the first six weeks of the season. However, I prefer the side more than the total in Marlins-Diamondbacks.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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