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Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Apr 26, 2021; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Julio Urias (7) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

The Seattle Mariners (18-18) play the Los Angeles Dodgers (19-17) Wednesday at Dodger Stadium for their second game of a back-to-back. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Dodgers with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. rallied back from a 3-run deficit Tuesday with two runs in the bottom of the seventh inning and three runs in the bottom of the eighth to beat Seattle 6-4.

Season series: Dodgers lead 2-1.

RHP Justin Dunn is the projected starter for the Mariners. He is 1-0 with a 3.51 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 6.0 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 5 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 4 BB and 6 K in Seattle’s 5-2 win against the Baltimore Orioles May 4.
  • Career vs. Dodgers: 1 start with a no-decision with 2 IP, 6 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 1 K in an 11-9 loss last season.

LHP Julio Urías gets the start for the Dodgers. He is 4-1 with a 3.59 ERA (42 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 7 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss in 5 IP with 5 ER, 8 H, 0 BB and 4 K Friday at the Los Angeles Angels.
  • Career vs. Mariners: 1-0 with a 1.04 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 0.81 WHIP and 16.6 K/9 in 2 starts.

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Mariners at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Dodgers -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (+105) | Dodgers -1.5 (-130)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Dodgers 9, Mariners 2

Money line (ML)

PASS, given how good Urías looked earlier this season against Seattle. Urías struck out 11 batters and walked 1 in a one-hit gem over 7 scoreless innings in L.A.’s 1-0 win over Seattle April 20.

I don’t want to lay the juice with the Dodgers (-275) given how simple baseball has become this year.

The only things that are happening are walks, strikeouts and home runs, so risking -275 with any favorite is probably a no-go when there are fewer variables deciding outcomes.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the DODGERS -1.5 (-130) for 1 unit because last night’s win over the Mariners could’ve been the slump buster their lineup needed and the numbers point to L.A. raking against Dunn.

Statcast grades Dunn in the 22nd percentile of expected wOBA, 35th percentile of expected slugging percentage and ninth-percentile of BB%.

The Dodgers lineup ranks first in both wRC+ and wOBA, second in BB/K and third in hard-hit rate vs. right-handed pitching.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8 (-105) for a half unit since Urías was filthy earlier this year against the Mariners, but if the Dodgers do damage to Dunn early and get into the back-half of Seattle’s bullpen this game could get out of hand.

The same point could be made if L.A. gets out to a big lead and goes to its less effective relievers to preserve the more quality arms for higher leverage situations, which opens the backdoor for Seattle’s offense to help an Over, as well.

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