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Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors odds, picks and prediction

Jan 28, 2021; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) goes up for a layup against Phoenix Suns forward Mikal Bridges (25) during the first half at Phoenix Suns Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The Phoenix Suns (48-20) visit the Bay Area Tuesday for a 10 p.m. ET game with the host Golden State Warriors (36-33) at Chase Center. Below, we analyze the Suns-Warriors odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Phoenix has alternated wins and losses over the last four games and went 2-2 against the spread. The latest outing was a 123-110 loss to a Los Angeles Lakers team without SF LeBron James Sunday.

The Suns are 1.5 games back of the first-place Utah Jazz for home-court advantage throughout the postseason and are trying to hold off the Los Angeles Clippers, who are 3 games back, for the Pacific Division crown.

Golden State upset the Utah Jazz 119-116 as a 2-point home underdog Monday. It was the Warriors’ third straight win and fifth win over the last six games while going 5-1 ATS.

The 8-seed Warriors sit a half-game in front of the Memphis Grizzlies and seeds 7-10 participate in the postseason play-in tournament with the seventh- and eighth-place teams getting two games to clinch a playoff berth.

The Suns are going for the season sweep of the Warriors after winning the first two games by 21 and 22 points.

Suns at Warriors: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Suns -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Warriors +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Suns -4.5 (-110) | Warriors +4.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 229.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Suns at Warriors: Key injuries

Suns

  • PF Cameron Johnson (wrist) out

Warriors

  • PF Eric Paschall (hip) out
  • SG Damion Lee (health and safety protocols) out
  • SF Kelly Oubre Jr. (wrist) out

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Suns at Warriors: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Suns 113, Warriors 105

Money line (ML)

PASS because Phoenix is the right side but the Suns (-190) are a little out of my price range for an NBA regular-season favorite.

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Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the SUNS -4.5 (-110) for a half unit because I prefer the total more than the side here, but Suns PG Chris Paul has done as good of a job as anyone at guarding Warriors PG Steph Curry and this is a bad spot for the Warriors.

Paul is outscoring Curry 21.5-21.2 points per game and outshooting him 48.4% to 46.7% from the field in their 31 career meetings.

If Paul can just minimize the damage Curry does in this game, I don’t think the Golden State role players can do enough to make up for Curry being less than brilliant.

Also, the Warriors are getting destroyed in divisional games. They’re 4-7 straight up and 3-8 ATS with a minus-9.8 average scoring margin and minus-5.8 ATS margin. They’re also terrible on the second of a back-to-back at 5-9 ATS with a minus-4.5 ATS margin.

Over/Under (O/U)

Since I figure both teams play with max motivation and there’s a playoff-life atmosphere in this game, GIMME the UNDER 229.5 (-110) for 1 unit.

The Suns held the Warriors to fewer than 100 points in each of their first two meetings this season and Golden State has a better defensive rating (fifth) than Phoenix (seventh).

Furthermore, there’s a few solid Golden State Under trends that are applicable in this spot.

The Warriors played to the Under in 10 of their last 12 games on no rest and five of the last six after their starting 5 combined for 160 minutes played the day prior.

Golden State could be a little winded after playing a hotly contested single-possession game Monday against the best in the West.

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