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New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and prediction

May 4, 2021; Anaheim, California, USA; Tampa Bay Rays designated hitter Austin Meadows (17) hits a three run home run against the Los Angeles Angels during the eighth inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees (18-16) play the Tampa Bay Rays (19-17) in the opener of a three-game series Tuesday. First pitch will be at 7:10 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Jordan Montgomery is the projected starting pitcher for the Yankees. He is 1-1 with a 4.41 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 32 2/3 IP over 6 starts.

Montgomery has faced the Rays twice already this season, and in those outings surrendered 8 ER and 4 HR over 11 combined IP with 11 K and 4 BB. In his other four starts, he has allowed a total of just one home run.

RHP Luis Patino is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays. He is 1-0 with a 1.17 ERA, 0.52 WHIP, 11.7 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9 in 7 2/3 IP spanning his three appearances (one start).

Patino has looked dominant in the limited sample so far. He had 5 K in 3 IP in a relief appearance against the Los Angeles Angels last week, but he threw just 56 pitches, and can’t be expected to work very deep into the game.

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Yankees at Rays odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Yankees -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Rays +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Yankees -1.5 (+125) | Rays +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Rays 4, Yankees 3

Money line (ML)

In general, the Rays aren’t great vs left-handed pitching, as they rank 20th in wRC+ in the split, along with the second-highest K%. Montgomery has struggled against the Rays, though, and dating back to last year, has allowed 6 homers in just 11 2/3 IP against them.

Patino will probably only work 3-4 innings, but he is a good bet to hold the Yankees bats in check while he’s in there. While the Yankees offense has been mashing against lefties, they rank just 17th in wRC+ vs right-handers.

Look for the RAYS (+110) to pull off the minor upset.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Rays have fared well against the Yankees so far this season, winning five of the six matchups and outscoring them 36-20.

Four of Tampa Bay’s last seven losses were by just a single run, and this sets up to be another close game. Take the RAYS +1.5 (-155).

Over/Under (O/U)

With Tampa facing a tough lefty and New York going up against a good young right-hander, neither offense should be expected to have a big day; however, Montgomery has certainly had his issues against the Rays, so it’s easy to see this one going either way.

It is probably best to just PASS on the total.

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