Many of the world’s best golfers are hitting up TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, for this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson, as they make their final preparations for next week’s PGA Championship. Below, we’ll look for the best value prop bets in the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson odds, with matchups, placings and first-round leader picks and predictions.
Four of the top-10 golfers in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings are in the field this week. Others of note include 2021 Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama, two-time PGA Championship winner Brooks Koepka and 2019 AT&T Byron Nelson champ Sung Kang.
This is the first year the AT&T Byron is being played at TPC Craig Ranch. It’s the first PGA Tour event to ever be held at the venue.
2021 AT&T Byron Nelson picks: Matchups
Hideki Matsuyama vs. Brooks Koepka (-110)
The marquee matchup of the week pits the Masters champ against the four-time major winner. Neither has played since mid-April, with Koepka taking time off after a missed cut following knee surgery and Matsuyama celebrating his first major win.
Both carry plenty of risk and uncertainty after the extended layoff and while likely looking ahead to next week. At their best, Koepka is the better fit for the course with his play off the tee. He should also be more motivated to play into the weekend while testing out his knee ahead of 2021’s second major.
Ryan Palmer (-110) vs. Sam Burns
Burns was off last week following his first PGA Tour victory at the Valspar Championship. Palmer also took the week off and now looks for his 11th straight made cut to begin the calendar year.
They are both a strong fit for the 7,468-yard course while ranking highly in par 4 efficiency: 450-500 yards and birdie or better percentage. Palmer has a slight edge in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee with an average of 0.48 per round to Burns’ 0.26. Trust the veteran and Texas native.
2021 AT&T Byron Nelson picks: Placings
Top 5: Brooks Koepka (+400)
As noted above, there’s plenty of risk with Koepka, who enters the week 64th in the Golfweek rankings but 12th in the Official World Golf Ranking. He’s the third-best player in the field by the OWGR measure but has the fifth-best odds for a top-5 placing while offering a 4-1 return.
Additionally, Koepka has played extremely well ahead of his last three major appearances. He tied for second at the WGC-Workday Championship before his knee surgery and missed cut at the Masters. He tied for fifth at last fall’s Vivint Houston the week before the November Masters, and he tied for second at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational the week before the 2020 PGA Championship.
2021 AT&T Byron Nelson picks: First-round leader
Luke List (+6000)
List is +7000 to win outright but +6000 for the 18-hole lead following a T-6 finish last week at the Wells Fargo Championship. He was fourth among those to make the cut with 1.13 SG: Off-the-Tee per round.
He’s also among the most experienced in this field at TPC Craig Ranch with a T-13 finish at the 2012 Web.com Tour Championship. Familiarity with the venue, combined with his current form and an 8:18 a.m. ET tee time will result in a hot start.
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