Monday night’s San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies game has been postponed due to inclement weather. It will be rescheduled as a traditional doubleheader on Wednesday, May 12, beginning at 12:10 pm PT/1:10 pm MT.
The San Diego Padres (19-16) start a three-game series Monday with NL West rival Colorado Rockies (12-22) at Coors Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Rockies with MLB picks and predictions.
This will be the first regular-season meeting between these two clubs, but the Padres won last season’s series against the Rockies, 7-3, and outscored them by a combined 27 runs in those 10 games.
RHP Dinelson Lamet is the projected starter for the Padres. Lamet is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA (4 IP, 0 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 across 2 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in 2 IP with 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 0 K in San Diego’s 2-1 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- Career vs. the Giants: 1-1 with a 2.66 ERA (20 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.18 WHIP and 12.0 K/9 over 4 starts, all at Oracle Park.
- Vs. Giants on the current roster: 54 at-bats with a .204/.259/.333 slash line, 1 HR and 5 RBIs.
RHP Antonio Senzatela gets the start for the Rockies. Senzatela is 1-3 with a 5.76 ERA (29 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.55 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 across 6 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER 9 H, 1 BB and 3 K in Colorado’s 5-3 loss at the Arizona Diamondbacks April 29.
- Career vs. the Padres: 7-2 with a 3.08 ERA (64 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.20 WHIP and 2.5 K/9 over 9 starts and 6 relief appearances.
- Vs. Padres on the current roster: 104 at-bats with a .317/.387/.519 slash line, 18/11 K/BB rate, 2 HR and 11 RBIs.
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Padres at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction
- Money line: Padres -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Rockies +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (-115) | Rockies +1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 10 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Padres 9, Rockies 4
Money line (ML)
PASS even though Lamet is a starter I’m much higher on than Senzatela because the Padres (-175) is too expensive given Lamet has only gone two innings in each of his starts.
Don’t get me wrong, San Diego’s bullpen is legit, but -175 is a number I’m more willing to lay with an ace on the mound and Lamet is still working back from injury.
Senzatela isn’t striking out a lot of batters (Statcast grades Senzatela in the 7-percentile of K%) and gives up a ton of contact (fifth in whiff%) while San Diego’s lineup doesn’t strikeout very much (fourth-lowest K%).
The Padres’ bats are bottom-10 in several advanced hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA and OPS, but there are signs of progression forthcoming.
For instance, San Diego’s lineup is 24th in BAbip, which is a luck-based factor that somewhat explains the other poor numbers, but the Padres are sixth in hard-hit rate so they are making good contact.
Perhaps San Diego’s lineup doesn’t transform overnight but, at this price, I’m BETTING the PADRES -1.5 (-115) for 1 unit rake against the Rockies.
PASS because San Diego’s lineup still needs to prove it if I’m going to be betting an Over on a double-digit total and Colorado’s lineup is one of the worst in the Majors.
The Padres’ 11 runs scored in yesterday’s win over the San Francisco Giants was only two runs fewer than the previous six games combined and the Rockies have been shutout in two of their past three games.
Lastly, these teams have a combined 2-6 O/U record this season when these starters are on the mound. Senzatela, in particular, generally garners a lot of Over money when he makes a start but those Over bets aren’t cashing thus far.
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