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Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros odds, picks and prediction

Apr 25, 2021; Houston, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Angels shortstop Jose Iglesias (4) slides across home plate to score a run against the Houston Astros during the fifth inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

The Los Angeles Angels (15-18) travel to Space City Monday for a three-game set against division rival Houston Astros (18-16) at Minute Maid Park with the first pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Angels vs. Astros with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. beat the Los Angeles Dodgers 2-1 Sunday in the rubber match of the Freeway Series, but the Angels have only won thrice in the past 10 games.

Houston also won the rubber match of its series with the Toronto Blue Jays Sunday and the Astros are just 5-5 over their last 10 games.

Season series: Astros lead 4-2.

The Angels haven’t named Monday’s starting pitcher as of this publishing, but LHP José Suarez is likely “to factor” in the team’s pitching plans Monday, skipper Joe Maddon said. The 23-year-old lefty is 2-8 with a 7.99 ERA (83 1/3 IP, 74 ER), 1.78 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 across 17 starts and 4 relief appearances in his two MLB seasons.

  • Career vs. the Astros: 0-2 with a 7.31 ERA (16 IP, 13 ER), 2.00 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 over 4 starts and 1 relief appearance.
    • Vs. Astros on the current roster: 43 at-bats with a .279/.367/.395 slash line, 1 HR and 3 RBIs.

RHP Luis García is the projected starter for the Astros. García is 0-3 with a 3.28 ERA (24 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 over 4 starts and 2 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No decision in 4 2/3 IP with 3 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 8 K Wednesday at the New York Yankees.
  • Career vs. the Angels: 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.39 WHIP and 2.9 K/9 in 1 start and 2 relief appearances.
    • Vs. Angels on the current roster: 23 at-bats with a .304/.452/.739 slash line, 1/6 K/BB rate, 3 HR and 5 RBIs.

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Angels at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:54 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Angels +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Astros -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Off the board
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Angels 7, Astros 4

Money line (ML)

L.A.’s lineup is a lot more effective vs. righties than Houston’s lineup is against lefties.

The Angels are second in wRC+, third in OPS and fourth in wOBA against right-handed pitching, while the Astros are 15th in both OPS and wOBA and 19th in ground-ball to fly-ball rate vs. lefties.

García’s K% would grade out higher than the 74th percentile if it weren’t for his two starts this season against the Angels, both of which Houston lost.

García has only struck out one out of his 25 Angels batters faced. L.A. has an above-average lineup, which hasn’t been fooled by García’s stuff, and each ballclub’s bullpen is ranked pretty similarly in advanced pitching metrics.

I’m BETTING ANGELS (+135) for a three-fourths unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with the RL off the board.

Over/Under (O/U)

Since I like L.A.’s chances at hitting García and Houston’s lineup is as lethal, I’ll BET a half unit on the OVER 9.5 (-110). If the total climbs to 10 or higher, this is a PASS.

Generally, I prefer sides more than totals and that’s the case for Angels-Astros.

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