The Atlanta Braves (16-17) play the Philadelphia Phillies (18-16) Sunday for the rubber match of their three-game set at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves with MLB picks and predictions.
Atlanta battled back from a 3-run deficit twice in its 8-7 extra-innings victory Saturday. The Braves were down 3-0 after the second inning but scored two in the bottom of the 9th to send it into extras.
Atlanta then rallied from three runs back entering the bottom of the 12th to win with a walk-off RBI single by RF Ehire Adrianza.
Season series: Phillies lead 5-3.
RHP Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies. He is 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA (43 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 7 starts.
- Last outing: Win in 6 IP with 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 10 K Tuesday vs. the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Career vs. Braves: 11-6 with a 3.03 ERA (130 2/3 IP, 44 ER), 1.15 WHIP and 8.1 K/9 in 21 starts.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 197 at-bats with a .254/.323/.447 slash line and 11 HR.
RHP Huascar Ynoa is the projected starter for the Braves. He is 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA (34 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 0.90 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 over 6 starts and 1 relief appearance.
- Last outing: Win in 7 IP with 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 4 K at the Washington Nationals Tuesday. Ynoa helped himself out and provided his own run support by hitting a grand slam.
- Career vs. Phillies: 0-0 with a 2.45 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 1.09 WHIP and 4.9 K/9 over 1 start and 3 relief appearances.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster: 18 at-bats with a .222/.333/.444 slash line.
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Phillies at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
- Money line: Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Braves -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Braves +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Phillies 4, Braves 3
Money line (ML)
GIMME the PHILLIES (-110) for 1 unit because Philly has its ace on the mound against an Atlanta lineup that’ll be easier to navigate if OF Ronald Acuna Jr. misses tonight’s game due to a finger injury.
There’s a bit of noise in Ynoa’s basic pitching stats because Statcast grades Ynoa in the 22nd percentile of exit velocity and in the seventh percentile of hard-hit rate (50.6%).
A big reason for Ynoa’s sub-3.00 ERA is his fortunate .225 BABIP and 87.5% left-on-base rates.
Both bullpens are middle to bottom-10 units and while Atlanta has been a little more productive in the batter’s box this year, Nola has pitched well vs. Braves hitters.
Furthermore, there’s less noise in Nola’s numbers as Statcast grades Nola in the 74th percentile of hard-hit rate, 78th percentile of expected wOBA and 91st percentile in BB%.
PASS because Ynoa has good stuff and should give his team a chance to win, Nola just has the edge and more importantly, the Phillies are 6-18 on the run line as road favorites since the start of last season.
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-105) for a quarter unit since it has slightly reduced vig because all the Under action in the market has steamed this total down from the 8-run opener.
Both starters are strong and winds are blowing from left to right, which doesn’t aid the hitters, and we are getting the worst of the number.
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