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2021 Goodyear 400 at Darlington odds, picks and prediction

Apr 18, 2021; Richmond, Virginia, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) races during the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond International Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

The NASCAR Cup Series is at Darlington Raceway for the Goodyear 400 Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. Below we analyze the 2021 Goodyear 400 odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and predictions based on the odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.

2021 Goodyear 400: What you need to know

Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:59 a.m. ET.

Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin is defending champ at Darlington last fall, winning the Toyota 500 while starting from the 16th position.

  • Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick won The Real Heroes 400 from Darlington in the spring race, racing to checkers from the sixth spot. That was the highest starting spot from a winner since Harvick won from the pole position at the track in 2014.
  • Richard Petty Motorsports driver Erik Jones leads all drivers with a 5.17 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in six career Cup starts at Darlington. He has a win and six top-10 runs, and he has never finished lower than eighth in the six Cup starts.
  • Hamlin has three wins, tied with Harvick for most wins among active drivers. Hamlin also has a 7.53 AFP with nine top-5 finishes in 17 Cup starts with 593 laps led at ‘The Lady in Black’.
  • Toyota and Ford have alternated wins in the past four Darlington runs, and Toyota has won five of the past seven Darlington races. Chevy hasn’t been to Victory Lane since 2014 when Harvick raced to the win.

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Who is going to win the 2021 Goodyear 400?

HAMLIN (+400) is the chalk at Darlington, along with Kyle Larson (+400). Hamlin leads all active drivers with three wins along with Harvick.

Larson has never won at this track, although he has three top-5 runs, five top-10 finishes and a 6.67 AFP in six Cup starts. If you’re picking between the two, roll with Hamlin over Larson.

HARVICK (+750) is a strong value, going for three victories, 11 top-5 runs and 15 top-10 runs across his 26 Cup starts while leading all active drivers with 782 laps led at the ‘Track Too Tough to Tame’. Harvick is also a strong value for a TOP-5 FINISH AT (+100), or even money.

Penske Racing’s BRAD KESELOWSKI (+950) has managed a win with five top-5 finishes, seven top-10 finishes and 380 laps led in 14 career Cup starts with a 10.4 AFP. The Penske racer is also a value play as a TOP-5 FINISH AT (+130).

In Matchbets, or best finishing position bets, roll with the following:

HARVICK (-130) is a good bet over Kyle Busch, last week’s winner at Kansas. ERIK JONES (+100) is a strong play over Aric Almirola, too, as an even-money play.

AUSTIN DILLON (+110) over Tyler Reddick is another good value at plus-money in head-to-head wagering.

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2021 Goodyear 400 long-shot bets

AUSTIN DILLON (+5000) is a long shot to win at Darlington. He has registered a pair of top-5 runs, three top-10 showings and he has finished outside of the Top 20 on just one of his nine Cup starts at Darlington.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that he has never led a lap at the track. Still, he is worth a small-unit play based on his 12.0 AFP. He is a solid play for a TOP-10 FINISH (+160) at plus-money, too.

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