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San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers odds, picks and prediction

Apr 16, 2021; San Antonio, Texas, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward DeMar DeRozan (10) backs in against Portland Trail Blazers guard CJ McCollum (3) in the second half at the AT&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports

The Portland Trail Blazers (38-29) host the San Antonio Spurs (32-34) Saturday at Moda Center for a 10 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Spurs-Trail Blazers odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

San Antonio snapped a five-game losing skid by beating the Sacramento Kings 113-104 as a 4.5-point road favorite Friday. The 10th-seeded Spurs are 1.5 games back of the eighth-place Golden State Warriors and 2.5 games in front of the 11th-place New Orleans Pelicans.

Portland’s 106-101 victory over the 7-seed Los Angeles Lakers Friday moved the Blazers to sixth in the West. They won six of their past seven games and are 5-2 against the spread in those contests.

This is the regular-season rubber match between these teams as the road team won and covered each of the first two meetings.

Spurs at Trail Blazers: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Spurs +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Trail Blazers -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Spurs +6 (-110) | Trail Blazers -6 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 232.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Spurs at Trail Blazers: Key injuries

Spurs

  • SG Derrick White (ankle) out

Trail Blazers

  • Nothing affecting the betting odds.

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Spurs at Trail Blazers: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Trail Blazers 116, Spurs 113

Money line (ML)

PASS because the Trail Blazers (-250) are too expensive for any NBA regular-season favorite.

I think Portland’s motivation for fear of participating in the play-in tournament is stronger than San Antonio’s motivation to earn the 8-seed, which would give the Spurs two chances to clinch a playoff berth.

Also, the Blazers are a better all-around team, healthier and beat the Spurs in three of their previous four meetings.

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Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the SPURS +6 (-110) for a half unit despite all of Portland’s previously noted edges because this is just a better spot for San Antonio.

The Spurs are 13-6-1 ATS as road underdogs this season and the Blazers are 8-15 ATS as home favorites. Portland failed to cover in each of its last five games as a home favorite.

The hoops’ angle for why I think San Antonio can keep it close is Portland’s defense is soft in the mid-range.

According to CleaningTheGlass.com, the Spurs attempt the third-highest volume of mid-range shots while the Blazers have the 22nd-ranked defensive field-goal percentage on mid-range attempts.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 232.5 (-110) for a half unit because the market has steamed the total up from the 229.5-point opener, which gives value to the Under.

Portland’s offense can be dull and predictable since it plays a lot of iso-ball and San Antonio held the Blazers to just 105.5 points per game in the first two meetings. Plus, the Spurs have the sixth-best defensive FTA/FG rate so I don’t expect the Blazers to get a lot of points at the foul line.

Not only is Portland’s offense pretty straightforward, but San Antonio has the fourth-worst effective field-goal percentage in the league.

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