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Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

May 5, 2021; Miami, Florida, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Eduardo Escobar (5) fields the ball before throwing out Miami Marlins left fielder Corey Dickerson (23, not pictured) in the 5th inning at loanDepot park. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks (15-17) face the New York Mets (14-13) Saturday in Game 2 of their three-game set at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York rallied back from a 4-run deficit to beat Arizona 5-4 in extra innings last night. Mets SS Francisco Lindor went 2-for-4 with a home run and 2 RBIs.

Season series: Mets 1-0.

RHP Merrill Kelly is the projected starter for the Diamondbacks. Kelly is 2-2 with a 5.79 ERA (32 2/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.47 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 across 6 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 8-4, in 5 2/3 IP with 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 6 K Sunday vs. the Colorado Rockies.
  • Career vs. the Mets: 1-1 with a 2.63 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.10 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 over 2 starts.
    • Vs. Mets on the current roster: 38 at-bats with a .105/.150/.342 slash line, 10/2 K/BB rate, 3 HR and 3 RBIs.

The Mets are going with a bullpen game, and veteran RHP Tommy Hunter will open. The 34-year-old has pitched two scoreless frames this season. He allowed two hits and didn’t record a strikeout or a walk.

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Diamondbacks at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Diamondbacks +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Mets -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-165) | Mets +1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Diamondbacks 4, Mets 3

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the DIAMONDBACKS (+120) because the Mets (-145) in a bullpen game doesn’t bode well early on.

The Diamondbacks are missing two of their best hitters in OF Kole Calhoun and 2B Ketel Marte, but I’d argue this gives us some value.

Arizona’s lineup is top-3 in wOBA, wRC+, BB/K rate and hard-hit rate vs. left-handed pitching with Calhoun and Marte having fewer plate appearances against lefties than their backups who are raking lefties this year.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS here. There is plenty of value with the D-Backs at plus money.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS since New York’s bullpen is legit, and Hunter only figures to throw a maximum of two innings.

New York’s relievers are top-3 in SIERA, xFIP, home runs per nine innings and fourth in K-BB%.

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