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Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians odds, picks and prediction

Cincinnati Reds right fielder Nick Castellanos (2) is mobbed by his teammates after hitting the game-winning RBI single, scoring Jesse Winker from third, for a walk-off win in the 10th inning of the MLB National League game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati on Sunday, May 2, 2021. The Reds won 13-12 on a walk off single by Nick Castellanos, scoring Jesse Winker from third. Chicago Cubs At Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds (14-15) travel in-state Friday for a three-game interleague series with the Cleveland Indians (17-13) at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Indians odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Wade Miley is the projected starter for the Reds. He is 3-2 with a 2.67 ERA (27 IP, 8 ER), 0.96 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 through 5 starts.

One of Miley’s losses was against Cleveland April 18. He went 5 IP with 4 ER on 5 H, 1 BB and 5 K.

  • Last outing: Win in 5 IP with 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 3 K against the Chicago Cubs last Friday.
  • Career vs. Indians: 1-4 with a 4.95 ERA (36 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.76 WHIP and 5.7 K/9 across 8 starts.

RHP Zach Plesac is on the mound for the Indians. He is 2-3 with a 4.78 ERA (32 IP, 17 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 across 6 starts.

  • Last outing: Win in 5 2/3 IP with 0 ER, 3 H, 4 BB and 6 K at the Chicago White Sox Sunday.
  • Career vs. Reds: 0-2 with a 5.11 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 0.97 WHIP and 8.8 K/9 in 2 starts.

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Reds at Indians odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Indians -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-165) | Indians -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Reds 6, Reds 4

Money line (ML)

I “like” Cincinnati because Miley is a little more locked in through the first five weeks of the season and the Reds benefit from the AL-DH rule more than the Indians.

For instance, Cincinnati’s lineup is top-5 vs. righties in several advanced hitting categories such as wRC+, wOBA (first), OPS (first) and home run to fly-ball rate.

Also, Statcast grades Miley in the 82nd percentile of hard-hit rate and 96th percentile in exit velocity while Plesac grades below the 50th percentile in hard-hit rate, expected wOBA, K% and expected slugging percentage.

Since Cincinnati’s bullpen is awful and Cleveland’s is very good, the way I want to get money down on the Reds is in the First 5 Innings market.

Slight “LEAN” to the REDS (+120) for a quarter unit since their First 5 innings run line is a sharper wager.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the REDS +0.5 (-115) FIRST 5 INNINGS for three-fourths of a unit because of the aforementioned reasons and because Plesac is less effective on four days of rest.

Plesac is 7-7 with a 4.24 ERA on a four-day rest vs. a 3.31 ERA on five days’ rest and opposing hitters are batting 31 percentage points higher compared to five days rest for Plesac.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 8 (-115) for a quarter unit if at all because I prefer the Cincinnati side more than the total but Miley has struggled against Cleveland throughout his career and earlier this season.

Additionally, the Indians could plate runs late vs. the Cincinnati bullpen that has the worst left-on-base percentage, and second-worst SIERA and xFIP.

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