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Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Jul 28, 2020; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Milwaukee Brewers center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) at bat against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the third inning at PNC Park. The Pirates won 8-6. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Milwaukee Brewers (17-14) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (16-15) match up Thursday at 1:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Brandon Woodruff is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. He is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 35 IP over six starts. Woodruff is striking out more than 30% of opposing batters for the 2nd straight season. In his last five starts, he has reached at least six innings and six strikeouts every time, while allowing no more than two earned runs.

RHP Zack Wheeler is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 2-2 with a 3.49 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 38 2/3 IP over six starts. Wheeler is throwing more sliders this season, which has helped lead to a career-high 26.6% K%. In three starts at home, he has a 3.66 ERA along with a 22/4 K/BB in 19 2/3 IP.

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Brewers at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:00 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Phillies +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+145) | Phillies +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Prediction

Brewers 4, Phillies 2

Money line (ML)

The Brewers have come out on top in five of the six games started by Woodruff, who has been pitching about as well as anyone in the league. Wheeler has looked strong as well but has allowed three earned runs or more in four of his six starts. Go with the BREWERS (-120), who should put an end to their four-game skid.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Milwaukee is 9-6 on the road this season, and just one of the wins has been by a single run. Neither team is likely to have a huge day offensively, but it typically doesn’t take a lot to win by a couple runs when Woodruff is on the mound. Locking in the BREWERS -1.5 (+145) looks like a solid value play.

Over/Under (O/U)

This total is low, but both starting pitchers are very capable of hurling a gem. Even with the game being played in a hitters’ park, each of them have good matchups.

These offenses have struggled to get going during the first five weeks of the season. Both rank bottom eight in the league in runs per game as well as wRC+ vs right-handed pitching. A small play on UNDER 7 (-120) is the call here.

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