The Dallas Mavericks (36-28) travel to South Beach Tuesday for an 8 p.m. ET game against the host Miami Heat (35-30) at American Airlines Arena. Below, we analyze the Mavericks-Heat odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Dallas had its three-game winning streak broke after losing to the Sacramento Kings 111-99 Sunday as a 6.5-point home favorite. Over the past two weeks, the Mavs are 6-2 overall and 4-4 against the spread.
Miami has won three in a row, four out of its past five and seven of the last nine games (6-2-1 ATS).
Each team is trying to win their way out of play-in territory as both are in sixth place in their respective conferences (seeds 7-10 participate in the postseason play-in tournament).
The Mavs won their first regular-season meeting with the Heat 93-83 on New Year’s Day. Miami SF Jimmy Butler played the worst game of his season, scoring just two points on 0-for-6 shooting in 26:49.
Mavericks at Heat: Odds, spread and lines
- Money line: Mavericks +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Heat -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mavericks +3 (-110) | Heat -3 (-110)
- Over/Under: 215.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Mavericks at Heat: Key injuries
- PF Maxi Kleber (Achilles) questionable
- C Kristaps Porzingis (knee) doubtful
- SF Andre Iguodala (hip) questionable
- SG Tyler Herro (foot) out
- SG Victor Oladipo (knee) out
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Mavericks at Heat: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Mavericks 110, Heat 103
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Mavericks (+125) because Dallas plus the points is the right side for the ATS section. However, the Mavs need to be north of +140 for me to sprinkle on their money line in this spot.
Against the spread (ATS)
The Heat are defensively stout but offensively limited, and they have performed poorly this season against good offenses.
Dallas ninth in offensive rating and Miami is seventh in defensive rating, but according to CleaningTheGlass.com, the Mavs have the second-highest net efficiency and the highest ATS margin against top-10 teams in defensive efficiency.
Also, we are getting a little “reverse line movement” in response to the early betting action.
According to Pregame.com, more than 95% of the money wagered is on the Heat to cover, but the line has been steamed down from the 3.5-point opener. It’s always a red flag when bookmakers make the more popular side cheaper.
BET MAVERICKS +3 (-110) for a three-fourths unit.
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 215.5 (-105) for a quarter unit since we got a “Pros vs. Joes” situation in the betting market with more money coming in on the Under whereas more actual bets are being placed on the Over, according to Pregame.com.
Typically, it’s more profitable in sports betting to follow the money rather than the crowd of people.
Furthermore, both teams play at a bottom-10 pace, are below-average 3-point shooting teams and the Mavericks have played to the Under in eight of their last nine games as road underdogs.
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