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Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Apr 23, 2021; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (46) hits a two run RRBI double against the Cincinnati Reds in the third inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Puetz-USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Phillies (11-12) play the third game of a four-game set on the road against the St. Louis Cardinals (12-11) at Busch Stadium Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Phillies RHP Vince Velasquez (0-0, 6.75) will make his second start of the season to go with 3 relief appearances. He has tossed a total of 8 innings with 8 hits and 9 walks allowed but with 13 strikeouts.

  • Allowing a 91.7 mph exit velocity with a .909 OPS in his limited action, including a 2 1/3 inning relief appearance against the Cards April 17.
  • Made his first start of 2021 at the Colorado Rockies Friday and held them to 2 earned runs over 4 innings with a no-decision in the Phillies’ 5-4 loss.

Cardinals RHP Johan Oviedo (0-0, 0.00 ERA) worked 4 2/3 scoreless innings of long relief in the Cards’ 9-3 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers April 11. He allowed 2 hits and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts.

  • Made 5 starts in 2020 with a 5.47 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 while being charged with an 0-3 record.
  • Has allowed a 91.3 mph exit velocity and 51.1% hard-hit rate in his 29 1/3 innings of MLB work over the last two seasons.

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Phillies at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:28 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Cardinals -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Cardinals +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Phillies 5, Cardinals 4

Money line (ML)

With neither swingman expected to go too deep into Wednesday’s start, we’ll make a contrarian play on the bullpen of the PHILLIES (-110).

While Philly’s relief corps ranks 29th in baseball with a 5.14 ERA, it’s 11th with a 3.96 xFIP and St. Louis is last with a 4.91 aggregate bullpen xFIP. The Phillies bullpen has been hurt by a .303 BABIP and 18.9% home run to fly-ball rate.

Trust in the progression toward the mean for the visitors with Oviedo inspiring little confidence in the home side.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Liking the Phillies to win outright in a close game, we can back the CARDINALS +1.5 (-165) for 1 run of insurance in the event of a loss. It’ll partially serve as a hedge against picking Philadelphia to win outright.

Over/Under (O/U)

Lean to the OVER 8.5 (-115) as a fade of both converted starters.

Both teams received at least 6 innings from each of their first two starters in this series, so the bullpens are well-rested, but neither unit is overly impressive at its best.

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