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Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Apr 26, 2021; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant (17) flies out against the Atlanta Braves during the seventh inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs (10-13) and Atlanta Braves (11-12) play the third part of a four-game series Wednesday at 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Kyle Hendricks is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs. He is 1-2 with a 5.68 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, and 3.8 BB/9 across 19 IP over 4 starts.

His last start (Friday against the Milwaukee Brewers) was a solid bounce-back performance after he was rocked by these Braves. Atlanta got to Hendricks for 7 runs with 4 home runs in a 4-inning stint April 18. Current Braves batters own a contact-, walk-, and homer-heavy 1.084 OPS against the veteran righty.

RHP Huascar Ynoa is the projected starter for the Braves. He is 1-1 with a 3.68 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, and 1.6 BB/9 over 22 IP spanning 4 starts and a relief appearance.

Ynoa was pounded for 6 ER (on 3 HR) against Chicago April 17. The third-year pro has otherwise pitched well, showing off an uptick in velocity and logging a 13.8% swinging-strike rate.

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Cubs at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cubs +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Braves -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-175) | Braves -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Cubs 5, Braves 4

Money line (ML)

The host Braves shut out the Cubs 5-0 Tuesday and have taken the first two games of this series.

Atlanta was a solid play in each of those games, but the price Wednesday dictates a swing back the other way. That’s more for the run line.

Chicago would be a lean at +120; PASS OTHERWISE.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BACK THE CUBS +1.5 (-175).

Hendricks has for years been a sub-4.00 guy in analytics-based ERA measures (xFIP, for example). His current 3.3 HR/9 is way out of whack with the quality of contact he’s yielding.

A low-humidity, breeze-in won’t hurt. He’s worth enough respect to bring value to this run-line play.

Over/Under (O/U)

BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-105).

Both offenses have their numbers in the shade a bit due to some early aberrations in lead-off, runners-in-scoring-position, and high-leverage performance.

Those subtle factors add up and in this case and make for two clubs whose surface numbers tell a muted story.

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