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Boston Red Sox at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Apr 23, 2021; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom (left) and catcher Tomas Nido (right) celebrate after defeating the Washington Nationals 6-0 at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The Boston Red Sox (15-9) look to sweep the host New York Mets (9-9) in a two-game series Wednesday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Boston took the opener 2-1 as the two clubs met for the first time this season. RHP Garrett Richards held New York to one run over seven innings, while striking out 10, and RHP Matt Andriese and RHP Matt Barnes (5th save) pitched a clean inning apiece.

RHP Nick Pivetta will look to continue Boston’s shut-down pitching as Wednesday’s projected starter. He is 2-0 with a 3.48 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 and 6.1 BB/9 in 4 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 7-3 home loss to Seattle Mariners Thursday
  • Career vs. Mets: 3-2, 6.08 ERA (37 IP, 25 ER), 1.70 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 in 7 starts and 1 relief appearance – all with Philadelphia Phillies

RHP Jacob deGrom is the Mets’ projected starter. The two-time Cy Young winner is 2-1 with a 0.31 ERA (29 IP, 1 ER), 0.55 WHIP, 15.5 K/9 and 0.9 BB/9 in 4 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 9 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 15 K in 6-0 home shutout of Washington Nationals Friday
  • Career vs. Red Sox: 0-1, 3.32 ERA (19 IP, 7 ER), 0.84 WHIP, 12.3 K/9 in 3 starts
  • 2020 vs. Red Sox: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H 1, BB, 4 K in 6-5 home loss

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Red Sox at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:25 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Mets -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (+105) | Mets -1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Mets 4, Red Sox 1

Money line (ML)

PASS. While deGrom is a one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, backing the Mets’ -275 money line is not worth the risk.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

NEW YORK -1.5 (-125) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager. Don’t worry that this suggestion goes against the trends. If deGrom wasn’t on the hill for the Mets, the Red Sox would be the play as they’re a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road this season.

DeGrom, who is coming of a 15-K, complete-game, 2-hit shutout of the Nationals, shouldn’t have a problem stifling Boston’s bats. Pivetta has pitched well for the BoSox, but he won’t be able to keep pace with the Mets ace.

ATS records: Red Sox 16-8 | Mets 5-13

Over/Under (O/U)

Back the UNDER 7 (-110) to WIN 30% OF 1 UNIT. The main reason is deGrom and his MLB-leading 0.31 ERA. The Under is 2-1-1 in his 4 starts, three of which finished with 7 total runs or fewer.

It also helps that the Mets have struggled at the plate lately. The Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games and 6-2-2 in their last 10.

The reluctance is because the Over has hit in all 4 of Pivetta’s starts.

O/U records: Red Sox 13-11 | Mets 6-10-2

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JOHNNY RECORD W-L SP ROI
2021 MLB 30-24-1 8-6-1 +6.0925
2021 (all sports) 133-109-2 57-47-1 +19.6425
*SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

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