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New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and prediction

Apr 26, 2021; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge (99) hits an RBI double during the sixth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees (9-13) and Baltimore Orioles (10-12) continue a four-game series at Camden Yards Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Orioles odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Corey Kluber is the projected starting pitcher for the Yankees. Kluber is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, and 6.6 BB/9 in 15 IP over 4 starts.

Walks have been an issue in the early going — the injury reclamation project has walked 11 batters in 15 frames.

LHP Bruce Zimmermann is the projected starter for the Orioles. The O’s southpaw is 1-2 with a 4.57 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, and 2.9 BB/9 in 21 2/3 IP over 4 turns.

Zimmermann figures to have more strikeouts coming, as he’s registered a swinging-strike rate of 11.7%. And he has thus far done well to avoid hard contact (29.4%).

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Yankees at Orioles odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Yankees -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Orioles +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Yankees -1.5 (-120) | Orioles +1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Yankees 6, Orioles 4

Money line (ML)

The Yankees’ offensive woes (3.54 runs per game, 27th MLB) are not supportable. But neither is the favorites’ price tag … or either starter here. PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Over has a slight lean, and the YANKEES -1.5 (-120) play figures as the best side in this one. It’s a play on New York’s offensive potential and an advantage in the relief pitching department.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Orioles had batted just .226/.287/.390 (batting/on-base/slugging) over 15 games leading into this series. They got to the Yankees for 4 runs in a 4-2 victory in the Monday series opener.

The Yankee offense has been way off-kilter this April, producing a mere .655 OPS through its first 21 games.

But that figure is due to their low batting-average-on-ball-in-play numbers, both overall (.245) and in high-leverage situations (.257).

New York is also working with a .187 BABIP when leading off an inning, a crucial game situation that arises 9 times per game and is often overlooked as a component of clutch and high-leverage play.

On some regression-to-the-mean lean on the Baltimore ‘pen and the New York offense … and with neither starter with much to hang their hat on … and with a warmed-up Camden Yards (near-80 degrees at first pitch) on a night with a batter’s breeze in the forecast, tag the OVER 9.5 (-115) with just a slight lean.

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