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Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros odds, picks and prediction

Sep 19, 2020; San Diego, CA, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Justus Sheffield (33) pitches during the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The Seattle Mariners (13-9) visit the Houston Astros (10-11) Monday for the first installment of a four-game series at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle took two of three games against Houston in their first regular-season series meeting from April 16-18 and the Mariners outscored the Astros 13-8.

The M’s split a four-game series at the Boston Red Sox this past weekend and the Astros won three of their four-game set against the Los Angeles Angeles Thursday-Sunday.

LHP Justus Sheffield is the projected starter for the Mariners. Sheffield is 1-1 with a 4.86 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 over 3 starts.

  • Last outing: Win in 5 2/3 IP with 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 6 K in Seattle’s 4-3 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers last Monday.
  • Career vs. the Astros: 0-0 with a 1.50 ERA (6 IP, 1 ER) with 1 BB and 4 K in 1 start (at Minute Maid Park).

RHP Jose Urquidy makes his fifth start for the Astros. He is 0-2 with a 5.14 ERA (21 IP, 12 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Loss in 5 IP with 4 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 1 K in Houston’s 6-3 loss to the Colorado Rockies Wednesday.
  • Career vs. the Mariners: 0-0 with a 2.79 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 1.03 WHIP and 6.5 K/9 across 1 start and 1 relief performance.

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Mariners at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:35 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Astros -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-135) | Astros -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Mariners 6, Astros 2

Money line (ML)

BET MARINERS (+165) for three-fourths of a unit because their alternate run line is super juicy and I’d like to split my sides’ action on the underdogs’ money line and them winning by 2 or more runs.

Urquidy is far less effective against right-handed hitters compared to lefties and the Mariners have mostly righties in their lineup.

For Urquidy’s career, righties are slashing .295/.366/.426 with a .362 BABIP compared to the .186/.313/.299 line and .214 BABIP of left-handed hitters.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

In addition to Urquidy’s struggles against righties, he also hasn’t performed well on short rest.

Urquidy’s ERA on four days of rest is nearly twice as high as his ERA on five days of rest and his WHIP is 1.54 on four days of rest compared to a 1.23 WHIP on regular rest.

GIMME MARINERS -1.5 (+220) on the alternate line for a quarter unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS on the total because I’m high on Sheffield and there’s “reverse line movement” in the betting market as more money is coming in on the Over but the total is being steamed down.

My Mariners-Astros money line handicap relies on Seattle hitting well vs. Urquidy.

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