Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Apr 18, 2021; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Atlanta Braves center fielder Guillermo Heredia (38) hits a two-run home run against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs (10-11) and Atlanta Braves (9-12) get a four-game series underway Monday at 7:10 p.m. ET at Truist Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Zach Davies is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs. Davis is 1-2 with a 8.80 ERA, 2.09 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 and 6.5 BB/9 through 15 1/3 IP over 4 starts. The veteran right-hander lasted fewer than 5 frames in three of his four starts. He went 4 innings against these Braves in a home loss April 16.

RHP Charlie Morton is the projected starter for the Braves. He is 1-1 with a 3.91 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 23 IP over 4 starts. In his last start (Tuesday) he limited the New York Yankees to 1 run over 6 innings. Morton has exhibited a would-be career-high 13.8% swinging-strike rate through his four turns and he has fanned 15 batters over his last 12 IP.

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Cubs at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cubs +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Braves -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-125) | Braves -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)


Braves 6, Cubs 3

Money line (ML)

The Cubs offense had started to turn things around before being shut down by the Milwaukee Brewers’ pitching staff Saturday and Sunday. Chicago had a mere .561 OPS through April 14; that figure is up to .703 now but with the benefit of three big games that saw the Cubs total 44 runs on 11 home runs.

Chicago struggles against righty pitching and Atlanta is at its best against right-handers. In this equation, Morton is the sharper of the two righties these clubs will see at the outset.

Look for a bounce from a Braves offense that was shut out in both ends of a home doubleheader against the Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday but leverage the run line. The current straight-up tag is too rich.


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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BACK THE BRAVES -1.5 (+105). Atlanta’s early-season offensive numbers have been undercooked by a low batting average on balls in play in the team’s high-leverage situations.

Peg the offense as being undervalued and Morton as being much the better option on the mound.

Over/Under (O/U)


There is just a sliver of a lean on the Over 8.5 (-105), but there are enough mixed trend and analytic signals to grind the lean down to no-go territory.

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