UFC 261: Zhang Weili vs. Rose Namajunas odds, picks and prediction

Apr 23, 2021; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Zhang Weili (L) and Rose Namajunas (R) shake hands in front of UFC president Dana White (white shirt) during weigh-ins for UFC 261 at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

In a women’s strawweight title bout on Saturday’s main card, Zhang Weili and Rose Namajunas meet at UFC 261 at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla. The early prelims kick off at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with the prelims on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET with the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the UFC 261 Weili vs. Namajunas odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

UFC 261 Zhang vs. Namajunas Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:11 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Zhang -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Namajunas +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
  • Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -135 | Under +110)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -125 | No +105)

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UFC 261 Zhang vs. Namajunas: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Records: Zhang 21-1 | Namajunas 10-4

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

Zhang (-200) will cost you twice as much as your potential return, and that’s just a little too much for my taste even if Zhang has won 21 consecutive professional bouts since losing her debut to Meng Bo in the CMMAL: China MMA League back on Nov. 9, 2013.

Weili has a 6.38-to-4.13 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and she is more accurate in the category with a 49.57-to-43.14 percent advantage.

Namajunas dominates in the ground game, posting a 1.91-to-1.26 takedown average lead, and 53.33-to-23.81 takedown accuracy percentage advantage, too.

Still, Namajunas might not get a chance to get this fight to the mat, as Weili is a whirling dervish who dishes out plenty of punches.

She’ll be looking for the KO/TKO win, and she’ll get it. As such, ZHANG BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+190) is a good play.

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Over/Under (O/U)

With an expected stoppage for Zhang, take NO (+105): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?. For a slightly better value, UNDER 4.5 ROUNDS (+110) is worth a look.

In this particular fight, I like a three-round block for round betting. Take ZHANG IN ROUND 1 (+600), ZHANG IN ROUND 2 (+800) and ZHANG IN ROUND 3 (+1200).

If she is able to win in either of those three rounds, you will lose two of those sides, but you’ll still be well on your way to building a huge bankroll.

To watch the early prelims, sign up for ESPN+ now.

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