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UFC 261: Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal odds, picks and prediction

Apr 23, 2021; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Kamaru Usman reacts during weigh-ins for UFC 261 at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

In a welterweight title bout in Saturday’s main event, Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal meet at UFC 261 at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla. The early prelims kick off at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+,  with the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the UFC 261 Usman vs. Masvidal odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

UFC 261 Usman vs. Masvidal: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Usman -400 (bet $400 to win $100) | Masvidal +320 (bet $100 to win $320)
  • Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -190 | Under +160)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -175 | No +145)

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Bet $1 on Kamaru Usman to win and WIN $100 (in free bets) if Usman defeats Jorge Masvidal during UFC 261. Offer available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offer, terms and conditions apply. Place all of your legal, online sports bets at BetMGM Sportsbook. Take advantage of this offer and bet now!

UFC 261 Usman vs. Masvidal: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Records: Usman 18-1 | Masvidal 35-14

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

Usman (-400) enters on a 13-bout win streak in the UFC. It’s the longest active streak in the division and includes four title fight victories.

He also ranks third in control time at 1:55:14, and he is fifth in control time percentage at 52.6% among those with a minimum of five UFC fights. Usman doesn’t get himself in trouble on the canvas. He is the only fighter in the division at 0:00 in bottom position time and bottom position percentage, and he has a 100% takedown defense. If you see Masvidal on top of Usman, it will be a first.

In addition, Usman has posted a 54.2 significant strikes accuracy percentage, and an impressive 2.33 striking differential.

With all that in mind, playing USMAN BY DECISION (-125) on the 5-way line for method of victory is a much better play than the considerably more expensive 2-way wager. He is the more rounded fighter, and that’s what we saw the last time these two faced off.

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Over/Under (O/U)

The last time these two fought July 11, 2020, at UFC 251, Usman came away with a unanimous decision victory. It was the first time in his past four fights Masvidal went the distance. His previous three fights had resulted in KO/TKO wins.

I like YES (-175): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?, because of what we saw last time. Usman is dominant, but Masvidal has not been knocked out since June 8, 2008, by Rodrigo Damm at Sengoku Third Battle.

Masvidal has little chance of submitting Usman and knocking him out will be tough since he’ll have difficulty getting close due to the champ’s two-inch reach advantage.

To watch the early prelims, sign up for ESPN+ now.

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