UFC 261: Alex Oliveira vs. Randy Brown odds, picks and prediction

Apr 23, 2021; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Randy Brown flexes while on the scale during weigh-ins for UFC 261 at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

In a welterweight bout in Saturday’s prelims, Alex Oliveira and Randy Brown meet at UFC 261 at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla. The early prelims kick off at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with the prelims at 8 p.m. ET and the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the UFC 261 Oliveira vs. Brown odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

UFC 261 Oliveira vs. Brown: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Brown -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Oliveira +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -125 | Under +105)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -110 | No -110)

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UFC 261 Oliveira vs. Brown: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Records: Oliveira 22-9-1 (2 NC) | Brown 12-4

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

BROWN (-150) steps into the octagon with a huge physical advantage, as he is four inches taller than Oliveira (+125), while holding a two-inch reach advantage.

The striker Brown is looking to bounce back after a second-round KO/TKO loss to Vicente Luque on the Brunson-Shahbazyan card Aug. 1, 2020.

Meanwhile, Oliveira is also looking to rebound after being submitted by Shavkat Rakhmonov at UFC 254 Oct. 24, 2020. He has won just four of his past eight fights, and “Cowboy” faces another uphill battle in this one.

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Over/Under (O/U)

Oliveira went the distance in four of his past five fights, while Brown has stoppages in each of his past four bouts.

Since Brown is the favorite and the pick on the 2-way line, take NO (-110): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?, as he has been racking up finishes.

Brown has eight TKO/KO (6-2) results and five finishes via submission (4-1) in 16 fights. The last time he went the distance was at UFC 217 against Mickey Gall. It isn’t happening here. UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+105) is a slightly better value, and worth a look, too.

In addition, look to BROWN BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+200) for a small-unit wager on the 5-way method of victory line.

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