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Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Apr 18, 2021; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner (40) pitches against the Washington Nationals in the fourth inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks (9-11) take on the Atlanta Braves (9-10) in Game 2 of a three-game set at Truist Park Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta held off Arizona 5-4 Friday in Game 1 of the series as Braves 2B Ozzie Albies and 3B Austin Riley both hit home runs.

Season series: Braves 1-0.

LHP Madison Bumgarner makes his fifth start for the Diamondbacks. Bumgarner is 1-2 with an 8.68 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.77 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 this season.

  • Last outing: Win in 5 IP with 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 5 K’s in Atlanta’s 5-2 victory at the Washington Nationals Sunday.
  • Career vs. Braves: 7-3 with a 2.73 ERA (82 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.03 WHIP and 10.1 K/9 in 13 starts.

LHP Drew Smyly is on the mound for the Braves. Smyly is 0-0 with a 5.73 ERA (11 IP, 7 ER), 0.91 WHIP, 0.8 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 2 starts. Atlanta is 0-2 in Smyly starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 5 IP with 5 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 3 K’s in Atlanta’s 7-6 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies April 11.
  • Career vs. Diamondbacks: No appearances.

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Diamondbacks at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Diamondbacks +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Braves -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-110) | Braves -1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Diamondbacks 7, Braves 4

Money line (ML)

The DIAMONDBACKS (+170) hitters have crushed left-handed pitching so far this season. Arizona has the highest wOBA and OPS and the second-most wRC+ vs. lefties in 2021.

Also, while Bumgarner appears to be on the downside of his career, he does still have better stuff than Smyly and a good history vs. the Braves. Furthermore, Smyly was just activated off the injury list after missing a start for forearm discomfort so who knows what kind of form he’ll be in.

In Atlanta’s home ballpark, Bumgarner is 4-1 with a 1.07 ERA (42 IP, 5 ER), 0.79 WHIP and 11.1 K/9 in 6 starts. Current Braves hitters have 106 at-bats vs. Bumgarner with a .236/.283/.368 slash line, 3 HR and 11 RBIs.

“LEAN” to the DIAMONDBACKS (+170) for a half-unit because Arizona’s run line is your standard -110 price.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET DIAMONDBACKS +1.5 (-110) for 1 unit because we are getting a great price for at-best an equal starting pitcher matchup.

Granted, the Braves came into 2021 with World Series or bust expectations and it would be slightly miraculous if Arizona was in the Wild Card play-in game, but this is just too good of a price given these teams’ current forms.

Arizona is 24-17 on the run line as a road dog since the beginning of last season and Atlanta is just 12-25 RL as a home favorite over that span.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 9 (-105) for a quarter unit if at all because I prefer the sides more than the total in Diamondbacks-Braves.

However, Arizona has raked lefties this season, Bumgarner is a shell of his former dominant self and Atlanta has one of the best lineups on paper in the National League.

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