Advertisement

Pittsburgh Pirates at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and prediction

Apr 11, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher JT Brubaker (34) delivers a pitch against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Pittsburgh Pirates (9-10) visit the Minnesota Twins (6-11) at Target Field Friday for Game 1 of a three-game set. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Pittsburgh has been a bit of a surprise given how low the expectations were for this team heading into the year; however, the Pirates have tied or won three straight series over San Diego Padres, Milwaukee Brewers and Detroit Tigers.

Minnesota was just swept 3-0 in its previous series against the Oakland Athletics and is just 1-9 over its last 10 games which includes three series losses to the Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox, and A’s.

RHP JT Brubaker makes his fourth start for the Pirates. He is 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 this season.

  • Last outing: Win in 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 8 K in Pittsburgh’s 6-1 victory over Milwaukee last Friday.
  • Career vs. Twins: 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA (3 IP, 3 ER), 2 BB and 2 K in 1 start.

LHP J.A. Happ takes the mound for the Twins. Happ is 0-0 with a 3.12 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 2 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 4 2/3 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 3 K in Minnesota’s 4-2 loss to the Red Sox April 13.
  • Career vs. Pirates: 4-3 with a 2.95 ERA (61 IP, 20 ER), 1.23 WHIP and 7.8 K/9 in 10 starts (the last start was in 2017).

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Pirates at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:05 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Pirates +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Twins -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Pirates +1.5 (-140) | Twins -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Pirates 5, Twins 3

Money line (ML)

Pittsburgh has a significant advantage in the starting pitcher’s matchup and its bullpen has a lower FIP and higher left on-base percentage than Minnesota’s.

Statcast grades Brubaker in the 70th percentile of chase rate, 67th percentile of whiff% and 65th percentile of K% while Happ is in the 5th-percentile of whiff%, 9th-percentile of barrel% and 13th percentile of chase rate.

Since I’m more confident in Brubaker than Pittsburgh’s bullpen and envision there is a good chance the Pirates lineup can get to Happ, I prefer the PIRATES (+125) in the FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit, but Pittsburgh is the right side.

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET PIRATES +0.5 (-115) for 1 unit on the FIRST 5 INNINGS line.

Not only does Brubaker have an edge in the starting pitching duel, but the Twins are 15-19 on the run line as a home favorite since the beginning of last season and the Pirates are 21-19 RL as road underdogs.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 8 (-105) because more than 90% of the money wagered has been on the Under so we have the “fade the market” angle, but that’s pretty much where my handicap on the Pirates-Twins total ends.

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

More Stories

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers odds, tips and betting trends | June 28

On Tuesday, a series opener is on the schedule, with the Milwaukee Brewers (42-33) visiting the Tampa Bay Rays (40-32) at 7:10 PM ET.The Rays (-110 on the moneyline) have an expected close game with the Brewers (also -110 on the moneyline). The Brewers will give the start to Brandon Woodruff, but the Rays' starting pitcher is yet to be announced for this game.The Rays defeated the Pirates by a 4-2 score in their last game Tuesday. Isaac Paredes went 3-for-3 with two doubles and an RBI to lead them offensively while Shane McClanahan picked up the win after...

Read the full article

From The Web Ads by Zergnet

Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates odds, tips and betting trends | June 27

At Nationals Park on Monday, the Washington Nationals (27-48) begin a three-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates (29-43), at 7:05 PM ET.The favored Nationals (-142 moneyline odds) take the field at home against the Pirates (+121). Erick Fedde (5-5) is the starter in ths one for the Washington Nationals. The Pittsburgh Pirates have yet to tab a starter for this game.The Nationals were vicotrious 6-4 over the Rangers yesterday in their last game. Jackson Tetreault was named the winning pitcher after throwing six innings, giving up one earned run on four hits while striking out four, while Juan Soto...

Read the full article

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves odds, tips and betting trends | June 28

On Tuesday, a matchup of NL East rivals is on the docket, with the Philadelphia Phillies (39-35) hosting the Atlanta Braves (42-32) at 7:05 PM ET.The Phillies are a tight favorite (-115 moneyline odds to win) when they play the Braves (-105). The Philadelphia Phillies will give the start to Zack Wheeler (6-4, 2.77 ERA), who is looking for win No. 7 on the season, and the Braves will counter with Charlie Morton (4-3, 4.84 ERA).The Phillies won their most recent contest versus the Padres by an 8-5 score Tuesday, with Nick Nelson picking up the win pitching going...

Read the full article
More MLB Picks and Predictions